EU COMMISSION: VdL To Face Confidence Vote ~12:00CET, Ouster Extremely Unlikely

MEPs will vote later today on a motion of censure against Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The motion is extremely unlikely to pass, with the moderate political groups set to vote against, ensuring that the thresholds for the ouster of the president and her entire College of Commissioners will not be reached. Nevertheless, the motion being put forward and the associated debates have allowed for an expression of frustration and anger with VdL from political groups on the left towards what they view as a rightward shift of the Commission. 

• After the main debate on 8 July, the vote will get underway ~12:00CET (06:00ET, 11:00BST), live stream here. The vote is not a secret ballot, but a roll-call with each MEP's vote recorded. In order for the motion to be successful, it requires the support of two-thirds of those voting, with at least half of MEPs (361 of 720) present and voting.
• The centre-right European People's Party (EPP), from which VdL hails, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal Renew Europe have all ruled out backing the motion. The motion was put forward by an MEP from the right-wing Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), a key factor in its likely failure. Groups on the left have proved unwilling to back a proposal from the opposite end of the political spectrum, even if they agree with its aim.
• Critically for the legitimacy of the Commission, the S&D is set to vote against the motion rather than abstain. VdL's concession on keeping social spending in the next multiannual financial framework ensures the group's support. 

Chart 1. Von der Leyen's likely vote margin

Source: Politico. N.b. Vote needs a two-thirds majority to pass. Support of her European People's Party and the liberal Renew group is enough to prevent that from happening.