OIL: Oil Demand Growth in India to Surpass China From 2026

India could eclipse China as the most important driver of global oil demand growth due to a rising population and slower transition from traditional gasoline and diesel transport to electric vehicles.

• Refiner China National Petroleum Corp. recently suggested a peak to Chinese oil consumption around 2030. Kpler forecasts India’s growth will surpass China from 2026 with a later peak of oil demand in 2036.
• China’s share of total emerging market oil demand growth will slip from almost 50% to 15% over the next decade while India’s share will double to 24% according to Fitch Solutions. India has green energy ambitions but is lagging other major nations so a reliance on fossil fuels is likely to be longer.
• India has already become a major consumer of Russian crude over the last year and has increased global shipments of refined products to other regions such as Europe and the US.
• China’s transition to electric vehicles has been fast with EV sales in China nearly doubling to 6.1m units in 2022 and EV sales globally already displacing over 1.4mbpd of oil use.