MNI Fed Review - Apr 2026: Easing Bias Could End Soon

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Apr2026_39e0f7d852.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The communications following Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Fed Chair had two major undercurrents. * The first was a vocal assertion of policy independence from political influence, in anticipation of the arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair by the next meeting in June. * The second - and related - undercurrent was that the door to further rate cuts appears to be closing, with current FOMC members looking increasingly reluctant to support a continuation of the easing cycle regardless of the preferences of the incoming Chair. * Rates markets concluded the meeting pricing in slightly more tightening. But appropriately given Powell's continued emphasis on seeing more data before making future decisions, most of this hawkish repricing through the meeting could probably be attributed to rising oil prices on developments in the US-Iran war. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch

MNI BoC Review-Apr 2026 - Looking Through Energy Shock For Now

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Apr2026_f377ac7b0f.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada's expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% at the April meeting was accompanied by a relatively neutral near-term outlook that highlighted somewhat lopsided two-way risks for rates dependent on the evolution of major geopolitical risks in the coming months. * The BOC is wary about the Middle East war's medium-term impact on overall price pressures, though no more than might have been expected given that it explicitly says it will "look through" near-term energy inflation and has updated its CPI forecasts accordingly. Governing Council also remains concerned about downside risks to growth stemming from upcoming US trade negotiations. * But with rates already at the bottom end of the neutral range (which was unchanged at 2.25-3.25% in its annual update), it's evident that potential upside in rates (BOC: "consecutive increases") is greater than the downside at this juncture ("may need tocut further"). For now, as Macklem said, "Maintaining the policy rate today where it is was the right thing to do for today". * Against this backdrop, the market's overall bias in seeing the next move as a hike stayed intact. Following the meeting, OIS pricing was relatively little changed through end-year, still seeing between 1 and 2 overnight rate hikes of 25bp through the December decision, though there was a slight upward bump in pricing for the 3 meetings between July and December. See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * Monetary Policy Report * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes

MNI BoC Preview-Apr 2026: Still Waiting For Clearer Signals

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Apr2026_f141b1d92f.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate for a 4th consecutive decision at 2.25% at the April meeting (announcement on April 29). * The BOC is seen highlighting that it will not allow higher energy prices to turn into persistent inflation amid a spike in energy prices, while acknowledging downside risks to growth amid significant uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East. In other words, the expectation is for a relatively neutral message on the path of rates ahead that leans toward more caution on inflation than on growth. * A more hawkish outcome would include further emphasis on upside energy-driven inflation risks and concern over rising expectations, with heavily-upped CPI and (possibly) somewhat slightly raised growth projections in the Monetary Policy Report. * Conversely, the BOC could echo March's dovishly-interpreted meeting by downplaying relatively solid recent activity data and emphasizing that it will look through near-term rises in inflation, while reminding of other downside risks on the horizon including on US-Canada-Mexico trade. * Hikes still don't appear to be a near-term prospect per OIS market-implied pricing, but a tightening bias is evident overall. There are roughly 1 and a half hikes (of 25bp increments) implied by end-2026 - versus a very slight easing bias implied at the end of February before the war in the Middle East erupted. * Analysts remain nearly unanimous that the next move will be a hike rather than a cut, but the vast majority see a hold through the rest of this year as the BOC remains wary of inflation.

MNI BOE Preview: April 2026: Update with Analyst Views

We preview next week's MPC meeting where we see a 7-2 or 6-3 vote on hold and also review the recent data releases.