MNI US Macro Weekly: Hawkish Shift Ahead Of Warsh’s Arrival

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260522_4ec42fbb93.pdf Executive Summary * Prior to Kevin Warsh's swearing in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, FOMC communication this week had all but completed a hawkish shift that leaves the Committee open to the next move being a hike. * The influential Gov Waller signaled he supported an end to the FOMC's easing bias in the official statement, saying a hike is as likely as a cut, while the April minutes confirmed a hawkish shift in Committee opinions as inflation concerns mounted and labor worries faded. * As a result, a 25bp Fed hike is now fully priced for 2026 for the first time this year, having previously come close to it earlier in March in the first month of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. * In data this week, activity appeared to remain firm overall. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 rose to 4.3% Q/Q SAAR, while the Dallas Fed weekly economic index continued to point to accelerating growth, with a 3% Y/Y reading roughly consistent with around 5% Q/Q SAAR if sustained. * May's flash PMIs came in slightly mixed vs expectations, with manufacturing unexpectedly accelerating and services surprisingly slowing, but the details generally looking weaker and more inflationary than the headlines suggested. Regional Fed surveys were also mixed, and also with inflation a clear concern. * Consumer sentiment took a further hit to a new series low in the final U.Michigan survey for May as inflation expectations continued to push higher, although it has been the more stagflationary of surveys. * And weekly labor indicators remain solid, with the ADP pulse running at a monthly equivalent of 169k and the four-week average of initial jobless claims still historically low at 203k. * Housing activity indicators were mixed in April, with forward-looking permitting picking up from a big drop in March but remaining weak. The broader message remained that residential activity is being stymied by high mortgage rates, with MBA applications falling again as 30Y conforming rates rose to 6.56%. * Next week is condensed for Memorial Day on Monday with the data docket headlined by the second reading for Q1 national accounts and April PCE report on Thursday.

MNI Asia Pac Weekly Macro Wrap:

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.

MNI UK Data Preview: May 2026 Release

Labour market data is due Tuesday and CPI Wednesday

MNI FOMC Minutes Preview – April 2026 Meeting

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/FOMC_Minutes_Prev_Apr2026_7ef9679d66.pdf Our preview of the April FOMC meeting minutes (out May 20 at 2pm ET) includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the meeting.