MNI US Macro Weekly: Mixed Readings Ahead Of Payrolls

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260529_e7d9d0b014.pdf Executive Summary * While cautious optimism prevailed on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire extension deal going into the weekend, the latest data flow did little to ease the Fed's inflation concerns even if the latest PCE readings came in a touch softer than feared, and activity indicators were mixed. * April core PCE rose 0.24% M/M, below the median unrounded expectation of 0.28%, but the broader message remained one of stubborn inflation: recent 3- and 6-month annualized core PCE run rates remain around 3.8%, underscoring that inflation is still running comfortably above a pace consistent with target. * Elsewhere, the macro picture was mixed but still resilient. Real personal spending rose 0.1% in April, with services continuing to hold up, but real disposable income fell 0.5% M/M for a third straight decline and the savings rate dropped to 2.6%, highlighting the squeeze from higher prices. * Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.62% annualized, mainly because inventories contributed less than first estimated, though AI-related investment remained a major support. * Core capital goods orders pulled back in April after two very strong months though overall still point to robust capex momentum. Business surveys were mixed but generally solid on activity, with the MNI Chicago PMI surging and Richmond Fed manufacturing posting its strongest reading in years, even as some regional service-sector details stayed soft. * Housing remained a clear weak spot, with new home sales falling 6.2%, mortgage applications down again, and mortgage rates rising to their highest since August 2025. * Labor indicators as usual continued to suggest a stable labor market: jobless claims remain low, ADP's weekly data implies firmer May private payroll growth, and the Chicago Fed estimates May's unemployment rate steady at around 4.3%. * Fed communication continued to lean cautious-to-hawkish. Jefferson said policy is well positioned but flagged upside inflation risks; Cook said she is prepared to hike if disinflation does not resume in a timely manner; Musalem argued real rates are below neutral and that risks are tilted more toward inflation than jobs; and Schmid warned against too readily looking through the recent energy shock, saying policy is not very restrictive. Kashkari maintained hawkish rhetoric but stopped short of endorsing imminent hikes. * By contrast, Williams and Bowman still emphasized that tariffs and energy may have mainly one-off effects, with Williams saying policy is "right where we want it to be" and Bowman still seeing a temporary energy inflation shock, albeit with growing concern about persistence. * Even so, market pricing turned modestly more dovish over the week, moving from fully pricing a 25bp hike by end-2026 to something closer to a 50/50 call, driven largely by improved prospects for a U.S.-Iran deal and, at the margin, softer-than-feared data including the GDP revision and core PCE. * Looking ahead, next week's focus is squarely on May payrolls, with Bloomberg consensus at 93k and the unemployment rate seen at 4.3%, alongside ISM Manufacturing and Services, JOLTS, jobless claims, and a busy Fed speaker slate including Waller, Powell, Hammack, Kashkari, Barr, Logan, Barkin and Daly.

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A weekly wrap of some of the key data outcomes/macro themes for the Asia Pac region.

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