MNI Fed Review - Jan 2026: Patient FOMC Treads Neutral Path

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Review_Jan2026_b1aa281281.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The FOMC treaded a largely neutral path with its January decision, maintaining its easing bias but sounding slightly more patient in making its next move than it did last month. Markets took a very mildly hawkish interpretation with implied rates rising under 1bp for meetings to July but even less of a move further out, and the dollar remaining largely unmoved. As it stands, there is under 4bp of cuts priced for the next meeting in March. * The Statement leaned marginally more hawkish in tone vs the previous edition but no moreso than was warranted given solid data since the December meeting and the Committee's clear shift to a "wait and see" stance on rates. It was edited to reflect more solid-than-expected economic growth and labor market data since December's meeting, no longer noting that "downside risks to employment rose in recent months". However the more substantive part of the statement - the forward rate guidance - was unchanged, continuing to say the FOMC was "considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments". * While Chair Powell said there was "broad support" on the Committee for holding today, including among non voters, Govs Miran and (in a very mild surprise) Waller dissented in favor of a 25bp cut, with the latter seeing a slight boost in his prediction market-implied probability of being named Fed Chair. * In the press conference, Chair Powell (as expected) refused to answer questions about his own future or the Department of Justice investigation into the Fed. But headlines published during the press conference reported US Tsy Sec Bessent saying that President Trump's Chair pick may come in the next week or so somewhat overshadowed proceedings. * On the monetary policy front, Powell at times sounded very relaxed on the current policy configuration, with the opening statement of the press conference including the line: "we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum employment and 2% inflation." When asked whether the Committee's timeline for rate cuts had been pushed back, he pointed out that since December there has been a "clear improvement in the outlook for growth". And multiple times he noted both "the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to employment" have "diminished". * But Powell also said that current rates were at the "higher end" of the range of plausible estimates of neutral, implying that there was further room to come down. He highlighted "ongoing disinflation" across services, and the expectation of goods disinflation over 2026 as tariff impacts wane. Finally, he emphasized that a rate hike was not any participant's base case for the next move. * Attention turns to a potentially busy schedule next week, which may include the long-awaited announcement of Powell's would-be successor (Blackrock's Rieder and ex-Fed Gov Warsh remain the front-runners). If a federal government shutdown is avoided, we will get January nonfarm payrolls next Friday too. See PDF report for: * MNI View * Market Reaction * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * FOMC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * MNI Policy - Fed Watch

MNI BoC Review-Jan 2026: Uncertainty Remains The Watchword

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Jan2026_8009f7d9a8.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada accompanied the unanimously-expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% at its January meeting with a largely unchanged appraisal of the economic and policy outlook. There was a very slight dovish tilt to the communications but not enough to sway market pricing of the expected policy path which continues to show no change in rates through 2026. * While the BOC remains uncertain about the "timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate", the opening statement highlighted the "unusually high" degree of uncertainty due in large part to upcoming North American free trade negotiation which the Bank's forecasts assume will result in the status quo, at worst. * And the updated Monetary Policy Report forecasts didn't deviate from expectations that inflation will converge with the 2% target, while maintaining that there remains slack in the economy despite upgraded growth forecasts. * Gov Macklem was asked in the press conference whether elevated uncertainty raises the bar for either cutting or hiking, and offered a little bit more colour on Governing Council's deliberations without revealing any particular lean, noting merely that CUSMA presented "obvious" risks to the outlook. * Markets came out of the meeting expecting largely the same path of rates as seen coming into the day, with modest cuts implied through July (~5bp) but rates ultimately ending the year higher (~9bp) vs current levels. * The next major data points to watch are November GDP on Friday, with January labour force data on Feb 6 and January CPI on Feb 16. The next rate decision will be on March 18. * See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes * Monetary Policy Report Updates

MNI BoC Preview-Jan 2026: Holding Is The Plan…Until It Isn’t

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jan2026_be093f7f2a.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate at 2.25% at the January meeting (announcement on Jan 28). * This would be a 2nd consecutive pause as part of what is anticipated to be a flat rate path through 2026. The biggest question is, in which direction will the next move be? * The account of the deliberations at the December meeting highlighted that Governing Council debated "whether it was more likely that their next move would be to raise or lower the policy interest rate." * It remains more likely than not that the next move will be a hike, with a downside shock required for cutting again. * The January Monetary Policy Report is likely to show an upgrade to GDP growth projections for 2025 as a whole with a potential slight upgrade to 2026 at a still-soft level. CPI forecasts also look set to be raised slightly due to higher-than-expected headline readings in the latter months of the year, but as we explain, the more important underlying metrics have been subdued.

MNI BoJ Review-Jan 2026: Steady, Uncertainty On Next Hike

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * As widely expected, the BoJ left rates on hold at its January policy meeting. This was the broad sell side consensus along with market pricing, which gave little chance to a hike at the meeting. A move was seen as very low risk, particularly after the December hike at the end of 2025. Much focus was on the outlook in terms of when the next BoJ hike may materialize. * Our sense is that the next window for a BOJ hike will be around mid year, consistent with market pricing of a June hike (see below for more details). Still, there are risks this could be moved forward, potentially to April. Watch points will be fiscal impetus post the election, along with JPY trends (weakness beyond 160 in USD/JPY could prompt an earlier hike), while by April we should also have more information on 2026 wage outcomes. * Market pricing, as at today, gives only a modest chance to a hike at the March policy meeting. April has an implied rate of 0.915%, against a current effective rate of 0.728%, so around 75% chance of a 25bps tightening priced in. A full hike is more than priced in for the June meeting, while by year the implied rate is above 1.40%. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BOJ Review - Jan 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/BOJ_Review_Jan_2026_776b9aadbe.pdf