MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Should Move To Neutral Bias Soon-Natalucci
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Should Move To Neutral Bias Soon-Natalucci
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MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Regional Banks Key To Independence - Judge
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Monitoring A Multi-Year Range In WTI
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MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Should Move To Neutral Bias Soon-Natalucci
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Regional Banks Key To Independence - Judge
MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Regional Banks Key To Independence - Judge
Monitoring A Multi-Year Range In WTI
Monitoring A Multi-Year Range In WTI
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MNI BRIEF: BOE Hike Unlikely In Baseline Scenario - MPC Taylor
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The ESM is holding a syndication today while Italy will look to hold an auction.
May 26, 2026 07:32RBNZ likely to leave rates at 2.25% on 27 May.
May 26, 2026 01:33The ESM is likely to hold a syndication in the upcoming week while four countries will look to hold auctions.
May 22, 2026 09:41Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260522_4ec42fbb93.pdf Executive Summary * Prior to Kevin Warsh's swearing in as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, FOMC communication this week had all but completed a hawkish shift that leaves the Committee open to the next move being a hike. * The influential Gov Waller signaled he supported an end to the FOMC's easing bias in the official statement, saying a hike is as likely as a cut, while the April minutes confirmed a hawkish shift in Committee opinions as inflation concerns mounted and labor worries faded. * As a result, a 25bp Fed hike is now fully priced for 2026 for the first time this year, having previously come close to it earlier in March in the first month of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. * In data this week, activity appeared to remain firm overall. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 rose to 4.3% Q/Q SAAR, while the Dallas Fed weekly economic index continued to point to accelerating growth, with a 3% Y/Y reading roughly consistent with around 5% Q/Q SAAR if sustained. * May's flash PMIs came in slightly mixed vs expectations, with manufacturing unexpectedly accelerating and services surprisingly slowing, but the details generally looking weaker and more inflationary than the headlines suggested. Regional Fed surveys were also mixed, and also with inflation a clear concern. * Consumer sentiment took a further hit to a new series low in the final U.Michigan survey for May as inflation expectations continued to push higher, although it has been the more stagflationary of surveys. * And weekly labor indicators remain solid, with the ADP pulse running at a monthly equivalent of 169k and the four-week average of initial jobless claims still historically low at 203k. * Housing activity indicators were mixed in April, with forward-looking permitting picking up from a big drop in March but remaining weak. The broader message remained that residential activity is being stymied by high mortgage rates, with MBA applications falling again as 30Y conforming rates rose to 6.56%. * Next week is condensed for Memorial Day on Monday with the data docket headlined by the second reading for Q1 national accounts and April PCE report on Thursday.
May 22, 2026 06:43FX Market Analysis
FX Market AnalysisA weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data outcomes for the Asia Pac region.
May 22, 2026 05:52Labour market data is due Tuesday and CPI Wednesday
May 18, 2026 05:10Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/FOMC_Minutes_Prev_Apr2026_7ef9679d66.pdf Our preview of the April FOMC meeting minutes (out May 20 at 2pm ET) includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the meeting.
May 15, 2026 07:00Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_macro_weekly_260515_86a449a208.pdf Executive Summary * Inflation was the dominant macro undercurrent this week, with a slew of data, and most FOMC participant commentary expressing concern that a once-delicate dual mandate balancing act is turning more decisively to an inflation-fighting battle as the war in the Middle East simmers. * April CPI was slightly higher than expected, but PPI was even stronger, and import prices saw a far greater than expected uptick. While energy was of course a big part of the story, as was a housing quirk that temporarily drove up CPI last month, underlying data suggest burgeoning price pressures more broadly. * Core PCE tracking appears relatively steady in April versus March, closer to 0.30% M/M after PPI, though that's unlikely to allay the FOMC's growing concerns. * Activity data stayed solid: GDPNow was revised up to 4.0% Q/Q SAAR for Q2, while retail sales held up in April (with the caveat that they look less positive in real terms). And manufacturing continues to look robust. * The limited labor market data we saw this week continued to represent low-hire, low-fire conditions, with claims consistent with stabilization in 2026 so far, keeping the Fed's focus increasingly on inflation. * Against this backdrop, Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the next Fed Chair, and he should be sworn into the office imminently. While he's considered a champion of lower rates due to the assumption that such a stance was a prerequisite to being nominated by the Trump administration, his recent public commentary hasn't been particularly telling on that front. * In any case the macro backdrop means he inherits a poisoned chalice from outgoing Chair Powell, with a divided Committee that looks increasingly agnostic on whether the next move is a hike or a cut. * Indeed, Fed hike pricing moved firmer over the week: after hovering around 2bp of cumulative hikes by end-2026, implied tightening looked set to close the week at around 15bp for the year - not quite a full rate hike implied but about half an additional hike added just this week, with a range of factors impacting. * Our Policy Team's latest piece on the matter ("MNI POLICY: Warsh Faces Resistance On Inflation, Productivity") notes Warsh will need to do some heavy lifting to convince FOMC colleagues of two key pillars of the views he has expressed over the past year - that policymakers can look through supply shocks and that productivity gains will bolster the central bank's ability to lower rates. * Next week, US data flow takes a breather after Inflation Week; key events are regional Fed surveys, flash US PMIs, jobless claims for the May payroll reference period, housing data, and especially FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, with focus on whether the Committee is moving toward a more two-sided outlook on rates.
May 15, 2026 03:42
