MNI US Employment Insight: Strong NFP Report Delays Rate Cuts

A stronger than expected payrolls report defied a raft of soft labor indicators and has seen analysts delay cut calls

MNI US CPI Preview: Clarity May Again Prove Elusive

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Feb2026_4401ef516e.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Consensus looks for an acceleration in core CPI following recent soft prints, helped by typical startofyear price resets and the ongoing normalization from the shutdowndistorted Oct/Nov data. Core is seen rising to 0.36% M/M after December's 0.24% (based on unrounded estimates), with headline 0.29% after 0.31%. * Several technical factors mean any acceleration should be interpreted with caution. January is prone to residual seasonality effects and this report brings new relativeimportance CPI weights, both of which may subtly reshape monthly dynamics and make it difficult to make a clean read. * Indeed, shutdown-related distortions from late 2025 are likely to still complicate interpretation, with delayed data collection, atypical sampling windows, and the reversal of holiday discount effects. These could continue to reverberate in January readings, particularly across categories priced on a bimonthly rotation, which include most non-housing core CPI. * While the above factors are probably taken into account in analysts' estimates, on balance they still suggest that an upside surprise in particular is likely to be heavily caveated and downplayed, both by analysts and by policymakers, much in the same way as recent downside surprises have been faded. * Analysts expect firmer goods and services inflation in January, including for supercore, though with wide uncertainty. Used cars, certain core goods categories, and several service components are seen contributing to sequential strength, even as volatile travel categories may moderate. * Housing inflation is expected to remain on its gradual disinflationary path, with rent and OER readings likely close to December's pace but still influenced by the long lag in normalization. * With the next FOMC meeting still several weeks away, this report alone is unlikely to meaningfully shift expectations around nearterm rate cuts, especially with the latest labor market data appearing to eliminate any lingering impetus to stave off labor market risks. Policymakers will have both February CPI and an additional nonfarm payrolls release available before making decisions at the March meeting. * Nevertheless, this release remains a key test of whether tariff-related pressures, earlyyear price adjustments, and lingering categoryspecific normalization are beginning to exert more persistent influence-an issue several FOMC participants have highlighted as central to judging the underlying inflation trajectory.

MNI US Payrolls Preview: Watch The Forest, Not Just The Trees

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Jan2026_Preview_26c52a5d47.pdf Executive Summary * Wednesday sees an unusual BLS nonfarm payrolls report after a brief delay following last week's government shutdown, with January details released at 0830ET. * The report will need to be assessed holistically rather than focusing on any single number, although the unemployment rate should offer the cleanest single take. * Consensus looks for a circa 70k increase in nonfarm payrolls coming almost entirely from private payrolls. * Some specific factors beyond more eye-catching calls are Scotiabank warning on a drag from the expiry of ACA subsidies and Morgan Stanley on a potential 35k public sector drag when accounting for a somewhat extended deferred resignation program. * The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4% after last month's surprise drop to 4.38% from 4.54%, leaving a profile of broad stabilization on net since Aug/Sept. In doing so it ruled out a more dovish base case that seven FOMC members had pencilled in at the December SEP. * Along with typical two-month revisions, we will also see annual adjustments from the benchmark revision up to Mar 2025 (a large negative revision in the region of -800k is roughly expected), a new birth/death model from Apr 2025 onwards and seasonal adjustment factors for the past five years. * The household survey population control which would usually come with this month's January report has been delayed to next month's February report due to last year's extensive government shutdown. * We suspect the market is shaping up for a weaker number than the 68k consensus for NFPs after last week's suite of weak labor releases and today's (Monday's) comments from NEC's Hassett on not panicking about lower jobs numbers despite appearing to talk on broader trends. * With Tuesday's retail sales for December still to come, the market currently sees a next Fed cut with the June meeting under a new Fed Chair (former Fed Governor Warsh awaiting nomination proceedings). * In the event of a large surprise, which will presumably see suspicion given ongoing data quality issues, the February payrolls report on Mar 6 will allow the FOMC to see whether those surprises are confirmed before the Mar 17-18 FOMC meeting and its fresh economic forecasts/dot plot.

MNI Gilt Week Ahead - 9 February 2026

We look ahead to Mann and Pill's appearances this week and the impacts for SONIA from political risk and data.