Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – June 2026

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Inter_Meeting_Fed_Speak_Jun2026_5efe70d02a.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the April FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and meeting minutes.

MNI ECB Review: Hawkish Comms vs High Bar For Hawkish Surprise

The ECB hiked as fully expected, with markets still preferring September for a next hike but not ruling out July

MNI US Inflation Insight: No Letup In Momentum

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Inflation_Insight_Jun2026_c3e5c85f11.pdf Executive Summary May's inflation data presented a slightly mixed but ultimately concerning signal for the Fed. Core CPI was largely in line with expectations, but the broader suite of data - including a robust PPI report and the translation through to yet another uncomfortably high core PCE print - suggests upside pressure continues to bubble under the surface. On balance, the data help cement the FOMC's likely decision to end its rate easing bias at next week's meeting alongside substantially upped Q4 PCE projections in the SEP, and will only reinforce speculation over a rate hike by year-end (currently 26bp of 2026 tightening cumulatively priced, same as pre-CPI after some interim volatility). * A fairly in-line May CPI report all around saw few major deviations across categories vs consensus, with core and supercore both largely in line. Core CPI inflation was very close to expected in May at 0.21% M/M and 2.85% Y/Y. * The softer sequential CPI details were concentrated in core goods and a reversion in housing. Core goods inflation slipped -0.11% M/M (defying proxy metrics suggesting this category should be heating up), while core CPI's pullback from April was driven by a pullback in housing inflation following an April distortion. * That said, recent run rates suggest further upward momentum in core CPI, with the three-month at 3.2% annualized and the six-month rising to 3.1%, while supercore inflation accelerated to 3.6% annualized on a twelve-month rolling basis. In short, still too elevated for comfort and headed in the wrong direction even if May/June are seen by most as the likely peak of pressures. * Headline CPI remained high at 0.47% M/M and 4.25% Y/Y, with energy still a major contributor and remaining a significant concern for broader inflation impact, even as softer food prices eased some immediate passthrough concerns. * May's PPI readings were firmer than expected. On a core basis it was the strongest set of price pressures since 2022, sending a warning signal for pipeline inflation building, including for supercore CPI/PCE. * The preferred core PPI measure, ex-food/energy/trade, rose 0.8% M/M vs 0.4% expected, the highest print since 2022. Goods categories showed robust inflation, while services PPI was also hot despite the pullback in trade services. * Core PCE-relevant components of May's PPI report were on the strong side, led by portfolio management and investment advice. That meant median estimates for May core PCE were upped by analysts, looking now to be landing in the mid-0.3s % M/M after the PPI release, up from 0.26-0.28% after CPI. * A 0.35% M/M core PCE reading would bring the Y/Y up to 3.4%, with the six-month annualized rate rising to 4.1% and thus reclaiming a 4-handle for the first time since mid-2023.

MNI BoC Review-Jun 2026 - Retaining Message Of Flexibility

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Review_Jun2026_2f7127c584.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Bank of Canada's June meeting brought a very much expected overnight rate hold at 2.25% and resulted in only a slight implied change in hike expectations. The press conference concluded with about 26bp of 2026 tightening priced vs about 28bp pre-decision, although at least some of the overall dovish tone stemmed from a US CPI report earlier in the day that was slightly on the softer side of expectations. In short, the Bank didn't deliver any major surprises, and indeed retained a messaging and overall tone that was similar from the prior decision in April. * The major risks remained the same - namely, a possible US trade shock to growth, and potential broadening and persistence of inflation from the Mideast war energy shock - and the overall tilt was toward tightening but not unduly so. Indeed Governing Council looks to retain the flexibility to either cut or hike as its next move, and does not seem in a hurry to commit. * Even the removal of the April statement's reference to the current policy rate being "about right" if oil prices moderate in coming months was downplayed in the press conference, leaving the overall guidance intact: "consecutive" hikes if inflation broadens, or a possible easing if US trade relations deteriorate meaningfully. * As MNI noted in our meeting preview, "Mixed activity data and an uncertain near-term geopolitical outlook make it likely that the BOC will also likely leave its message from the last meeting in April largely intact: potential upside in rates is greater than the downside at this juncture, but maintaining policy is still the "right thing to do for today" as uncertainty over trade and energy prices looms large." * Should the BOC look to decide upon a more decisive message, the most logical timing would be July's meeting (July 15 decision) at which point it will have another round of business surveys and monthly data upon which to base its conclusions, and of course potentially less uncertainty over external risks. But at the current juncture, even that looks to be too early for such a shift. For now, the upside inflation/downside growth dilemma remains. * Accordingly, analysts did not change their outlooks for BOC policy following June's meeting, with the overwhelming consensus being that there will be a hold through 2026 followed by 50bp in hikes in 2027, a path slightly less aggressive than portrayed by OIS markets. See PDF report for: * MNI View * MNI Instant Answers * Press Conference Transcript * BOC Meeting Links * Policy Statement Changes