MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: February 2026

We look at the details of the CPI and labour releases this week.

MNI RBNZ Review-Feb 2026: On Hold, Hike Possible Before Yr End

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The RBNZ left rates on hold, as widely expected. The accompanying statement and updated forecast profile, particularly in terms of the OCR track, were not as hawkish as market pricing. Notably the RBNZ projection for the Q4 OCR (average) is 2.38% against a pre market pricing outcome of around 2.64% (for year end) per OIS markets. * RBNZ Governor Breman stated that with excess capacity, economic growth can be stronger in the near term without generating inflation pressures. She said that policy can stay accommodative before gradually tightening. A hike won't be delivered until the central bank sees stronger growth and firmer core inflation pressures. * The market has 29bps of tightening priced by year-end versus 39bps prior to yesterday's decision. Notably, market pricing remains 12-22bps firmer than levels seen prior to November's RBNZ decision. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBNZ Review - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBNZ_Review_Feb_2026_6c3f7507c1.pdf

MNI FOMC Minutes Preview – Jan 2026 Meeting

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Minutes_Preview_Jan2026_6afe548849.pdf Our preview of the January FOMC meeting minutes (out Feb 18 at 2pm ET) includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum; analyst expectations; and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the meeting.

MNI RBNZ Preview-Feb 2026: On Hold, Hike Timing Key Focus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * At tomorrow's RBNZ meeting the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. The Bloomberg survey of sell-side economists shows all 22 economists see the policy rate being held at 2.25%. Our strong bias is also for no change tomorrow. If realized, this will leave the focus firmly on the outlook, particular on the RBNZ's new OCR path. The other focus point will be gauging new RBNZ Governor Breman's tone, as this will be her first rate setting meeting in charge. * The RBNZ will also likely be cautious around sounding too hawkish around the outlook, which the market will likely judge via the implied OCR outlook path. We would be surprised if the OCR path is more hawkish than current market pricing, which implies a policy rate near 2.65% by year's end (versus the current rate of 2.25%). The NZD TWI is up over 4% from Nov 2025 lows, while local rates have also risen. A further material tightening of financial conditions could put the economic recovery in jeopardy. This is also where Breman's tone is likely to be watched closely in terms of keeping the policy outlook flexible. FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:RBNZ Preview - Feb 2026.pdf: https://media.marketnews.com/RBNZ_Preview_Feb_2026_2056d416c2.pdf