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All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

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The ECB is seen on hold on Thursday, but guidance will be key with 80% chance of a 25bp hike in June

Apr-27 17:16

MNI interviews former Richmond Fed staffer on monetary policy outlook.

Apr-27 16:32

Forecasts we have seen point towards another pickup in headline inflation, to around 3% from March’s 2.55%.

Apr-27 16:13

MNI previews the April FOMC meeting.

Apr-27 16:01

The Copom is widely expected to deliver a second consecutive 25bp Selic rate cut to 14.50%.

Apr-27 15:57

MNI looks at the BOE's likely communications for its April 30 rates decision.

Apr-27 13:57

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FI Market Analysis

The EFSF is likely to hold a syndication in the upcoming week while five countries will hold auctions.

April 27, 2026 05:55

BOJ expected to retain a 'hawkish hold' stance with tightening still part of the forward path

April 27, 2026 02:32

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Apr2026_41d0d27442.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * April's FOMC meeting communications will reiterate the Committee's broadly shared view that policy is well-positioned and the next move is not urgent, particularly because the Iran war-related energy shock and associated uncertainty complicate the outlook. * Data since the last FOMC meeting have largely supported a wait-and-see approach, on balance showing initial resilience to the energy price shock seen in March (especially in the labor market) although surveys warn higher spillover to non-energy prices could be in the pipeline. * Where Committee views have started to diverge most is whether and how quickly the FOMC could signal openness to removing its explicit easing bias. * So while a Fed funds rate hold at 3.50-3.75% at this meeting is universally expected, with no new set of economic projections, attention will be paid to whether the easing bias in the Statement guidance is amended in favor of a two-sided approach to future rate moves. * Either way, rate guidance may soon be eliminated altogether. This is likely to be Chair Powell's last meeting before his term ends in mid-May, after which Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship. * In his Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh said he doesn't believe in forward guidance, and signaled that he would seek major changes to not just Fed communications practices but several key areas of policy. * Warsh is broadly expected by markets and analysts to steer the FOMC's rate lean in a more dovish direction, but his ability and indeed willingness to do so are not entirely clear. * There's not much Powell can say at the press conference about the outlook that differs from what he said in mid-March, given the ongoing impact of the war distorting economic signals, though it's possible that if the Statement doesn't shift to a two-way rate guidance, he may echo the recent Minutes in a hawkish fashion in suggesting that the Committee is leaning increasingly to that conclusion. MNI's separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday April 27

April 24, 2026 08:40

We preview next week's MPC meeting where we see a 7-2 or 6-3 vote on hold and also review the recent data releases.

April 24, 2026 02:33

FX Market Analysis

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Apr2026_41d0d27442.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * April's FOMC meeting communications will reiterate the Committee's broadly shared view that policy is well-positioned and the next move is not urgent, particularly because the Iran war-related energy shock and associated uncertainty complicate the outlook. * Data since the last FOMC meeting have largely supported a wait-and-see approach, on balance showing initial resilience to the energy price shock seen in March (especially in the labor market) although surveys warn higher spillover to non-energy prices could be in the pipeline. * Where Committee views have started to diverge most is whether and how quickly the FOMC could signal openness to removing its explicit easing bias. * So while a Fed funds rate hold at 3.50-3.75% at this meeting is universally expected, with no new set of economic projections, attention will be paid to whether the easing bias in the Statement guidance is amended in favor of a two-sided approach to future rate moves. * Either way, rate guidance may soon be eliminated altogether. This is likely to be Chair Powell's last meeting before his term ends in mid-May, after which Kevin Warsh is set to assume the chairmanship. * In his Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh said he doesn't believe in forward guidance, and signaled that he would seek major changes to not just Fed communications practices but several key areas of policy. * Warsh is broadly expected by markets and analysts to steer the FOMC's rate lean in a more dovish direction, but his ability and indeed willingness to do so are not entirely clear. * There's not much Powell can say at the press conference about the outlook that differs from what he said in mid-March, given the ongoing impact of the war distorting economic signals, though it's possible that if the Statement doesn't shift to a two-way rate guidance, he may echo the recent Minutes in a hawkish fashion in suggesting that the Committee is leaning increasingly to that conclusion. MNI's separate preview of sell-side analyst summaries to follow on Monday April 27

April 24, 2026 08:40

We preview next week's MPC meeting where we see a 7-2 or 6-3 vote on hold and also review the recent data releases.

April 24, 2026 02:33

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/Inter_Meeting_Fed_Speak_Apr2026_1e36b34c03.pdf Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the March FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and January meeting minutes.

April 24, 2026 12:59

A weekly wrap of some of the key macro themes/data releases for the Asia Pac region

April 24, 2026 05:45