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MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-CBO Chief Says Yields Will Likely Rise More
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Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields will likely continue to rise further over time as the base of demand shifts to more price-sensitive buyers, issuance continues unabated, and Fed communications add to volatility, the former director of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office Douglas Holtz-Eakin told MNI.
Furthermore, recent Treasury Department interventions in markets are a "terrible idea," Holtz-Eakin said in an interview. "They generate their own sort of uncertainty. Will the Treasury be changing things, trying to change things? How big will it be?"
"They're pointless and costly. I thought the yen thing was just a huge misstep," he added. "You have to deal with the fundamentals, and in the U.S. those fundamentals are: what are you going to do about the fiscal situation? And so far, the answer is nothing."
COSTLY
Bond yields climbed Thursday, erasing most of the pullback they saw the previous day after the Treasury Department announced an intervention aimed at easing pressure on longer-dated government debt.
Holtz-Eakin said the Fed's previous continued messaging that its next most likely move was down and not up kept long yields down a little. But the lack of clarity on the Federal Reserve’s reaction function in Chairman Kevin Warsh's recent communications and his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet are directionally pushing rates up. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Warsh Needs To Explain Fed's Reaction Function)
"Then there also structural things in the market" that have changed over the years, he said. "The traditional buyers of government bonds weren't very price sensitive. Primary dealers aren't price sensitive. Hedge funds are price sensitive, so we're seeing more pricing of things."
In addition, the Treasury Department recent interventions are "not costless by any means," said Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum.
"The responses, these attempts to engineer the yen, have failed. Not surprising to me. We already have bond yields back roughly where they were before Treasury Secretary Bessent made his announcement. That's also going to be transitory at best, and not really do anything.”
Holtz-Eakin pointed to the Treasury Secretary's past as a currency trader.
"It's the currency trader mentality. If you're a currency trader, you can get in, make a clever move, get out and make some money. That's what the Treasury did. They temporarily depress the yields down and now they're back up. The trouble is if you're Secretary of the Treasury you never get out. You own the whole market now forever. So you've got the wrong mentality for that job."
The Trump administration is acting to keep costs down ahead of the November elections, he said. "In the end, you have to view everything that the administration and Congress do with an eye on the political calendar.”
NORMALIZATION
Holtz-Eakin, who served as chief economist of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2001 to 2002 during the George W. Bush administration, said current real rates are not very high by historic standards.
"You could easily imagine pulling up another point. I don't see any reason to take that off the table," he said. "This is more yields normalizing than anything else. The abnormal period remains the period after the financial crisis and into the pandemic, where we had really low interest rates for whatever reason."
The U.S. gross national debt officially surpassed USD40 trillion for the first time in history this week. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: US Budget Deficit Unsustainable - Ex-CBO Chief)
"Right now, business as usual is for the federal government to spend USD7 trillion a year, raise USD5 trillion in taxes, and borrow two. Of that two, 1 trillion is interest on previous borrowing. That tells you the problem," the former CBO chief said. "The dominant fact is that Social Security and Medicare will be more than half of all non-interest spending over the next 10 years."
Holtz-Eakin, the 6th CBO director from 2003-2005, said Capitol Hill legislators and policymakers have not addressed the fiscal problems in any meaningful way.
"Social Security is going to grow to about 5.5% a year. Medicare is going to grow to 7%-7.5%. That's faster than any revenue source is going to grow. Revenue is going to grow at roughly the pace of the nominal economy" around 4%-4.5%, he said.
"You can't permanently fix the problem unless you deal with the growth rate of Social Security and Medicare," Holtz-Eakin said. "That's it, and we have been unwilling to face that."
Aug-20 15:43
Canada's investment chill will continue long after any resolution to the U.S. trade war according to a professor whose findings were echoed by Donald Trump and Mark Carney to justify reshaping economic relationships.
“Anyone in Canada whose business model had consisted of selling stuff to the U.S. is now going to be scared,” said Pau Pujolas, an economics professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario. “This goes well beyond the signing of the trade deal that they are going to sign now.”
"The U.S. decided to elect Trump twice, and Trump had said in no uncertain terms he was going to be a pro-tariff, anti-trade type of guy,” he said. “Americans may choose another person that is pro-tariff and anti-trade.”
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
Canada's challenge as a smaller economy that's relied on the U.S. for decades is getting over complacency that bred trade barriers between provinces, according to Pujolas. Carney has made some progress but the best defense against U.S. trade aggression is a much stronger domestic economy, he said.
“Bigger infrastructure, bigger ports, better ports, that's necessary if you don't want to be bullied the way Trump has been doing,” he said.
Another myth Canada needs to look at is the idea that its oilsands are key to prosperity while manufacturing industries have lost competitiveness, he said. Output per worker in the oilsands is high because very few handle capital-intensive refining but his research showed that collapses when productivity is measured including capital.
"Total factor productivity" has kept pace with the U.S. in recent decades when oilsands are excluded, defying a common belief Canada's growth has lagged behind, he said. “Let's calm down. Let's look at the numbers a little bit better, and let's not let's not freak out. Canada is fine.”
TARIFF DAMAGE
Trump and Carney erred with tariffs that made things more expensive for households according to Pujolas. The U.S. administration's idea that trade deficits are a negative is wrong for that same reason he said, arguing the deficit reflects American consumers who are able to buy more for less as global investors buy American dollars.
“A trade war is bad. It's making goods more expensive just for the sake of being produced elsewhere,” Pujolas said. “You want your citizens to be able to afford as many goods as possible for cheap, that's what a good politician should be striving to do.”
Trump's office cited one of the professor's papers to justify tariffs but officials missed the bigger point, Pujolas said. There can be gains from the world's largest economy seeking concessions, but overall losses to consumers are often bigger, he said, pointing to what he called a botched power play against China.
“Tariffing people, other countries, because you kind of have this bravado and you're kind of a hegemon that can go and start punishing everyone else, it's not great, and doing it incorrectly, you are also punishing your own citizens.”
The trade war has also shown that some Canadian leaders like Premier Doug Ford of Ontario, the country's manufacturing hub, are also willing to turn protectionist, he said. “Doug Ford is not different. Doug Ford, the way he thinks about trade is he needs to put an embargo on liquor from the U.S.”
Trump's modification of the North American trade pact to include annual reviews further weakens Canadian investment confidence, Pujolas said.
“These trade deals have these expiry dates embedding in them, there is always the risk that they are going to expire,” he said. “So we'll always be in this world of how much do we really believe in this thing called free trade on both sides?”
Aug-20 14:03
Sweden’s Riksbank left its key policy rate on hold at 1.75% in a unanimous decision at its August meeting and pointed in the direction of a hike later in the year while noting that the picture painted by economic data was "not clear-cut".
August’s meeting was an interim one with no new forecast round and the unchanged policy decision was widely expected, with September’s forecast round now centre stage.
The Executive Board tweaked its guidance, stating that "the probability of an interest rate increase later this year remains," having said in June that the probability of a 2026 hike "has increased."
Governor Erik Thedeen told the press conference that the central bank would tighten if unexpectedly high inflation seen in the summer turned out to be the start of a more enduring upturn. In June, he had said the chances of a hike were about 50/50. (See MNI INTERVIEW: 50/50 Hike Chances Due To Iran Doubts-Thedeen)
The board noted that since its June forecasts both growth and inflation have been higher than expected and, with the Iran conflict unresolved, "the risk that underlying inflation will be too high in the wake of supply disruptions remains."
MIXED DATA
But some of the data tilt against the perception that inflation pressure is mounting. The board noted that unemployment is relatively high, with the labour market somewhat weaker than expected in June, while supply chain pressures have eased and surveys show that Swedish companies have moderated pricing plans.
Still, the commentary suggested that the Riksbank could raise its growth and near-term inflation projections in the September quarterly forecast round.
Thedeen said officials were relatively confident activity was stronger than they expected in June and that growth momentum was good. Back then it forecast 2.2% GDP growth in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, with inflation on the targeted CPIF fixed-interest rate measure rising from 1.1% this year to 1.7% next, still below the 2.0% target.
Asked if he was more worried about inflation now than in June, Thedeen was noncommittal, saying that at the margins officials were slightly more worried but that it could yet turn out that recent inflation prints were a product of volatility.
Aug-20 09:56
Risks persist that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike its 4.35% cash rate again before the end of the year and are slightly higher than the 50% chance priced by markets, though the Board’s next move will depend on Q3 inflation and expectations, former RBA staff told MNI, adding that the Bank will not tolerate further delays in bringing inflation back to target.
“The RBA forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy [SMP] have underlying inflation only reaching the middle of the target late in 2027, with an assumed cash rate profile reaching 4.5% in mid-2027,” noted Tim Robinson, an ex-RBA economist and now senior research fellow at the Melbourne Institute. “That's quite a long time. If we get an underlying inflation outcome in the September quarter even only slightly higher than in the June quarter – 0.9% [m/m] – then a hike is a real possibility.”
While markets have priced about a 50-50 chance of a hike by year-end, Robinson said the risks were slightly higher.
John Hawkins, a professor at the University of Canberra and former RBA economist, agreed the Board would not tolerate a slower return than forecast. "I’d probably wait until I have the September quarter inflation, which means November might be the next really live meeting," Hawkins said, noting the Bank remains on the limit of what it regards as reasonable.
"And if its [November] forecasts show inflation taking any longer to return to target, that would be a reason to increase rates further," he said, pointing to its most recent outlook that has inflation falling from 3.9% in June to 3.6% in December. "They are probably looking for somewhere around 3.7% or 3.8% [y/y] for the September quarter. If it is significantly worse than that, then I think they will move again."
Labour market pressures in construction related to the large number of new data centres being built could also become an inflation risk if they spread more broadly, he added.
Governor Michele Bullock said last week, following the Board’s decision to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, that its timeline for inflation to return to the midpoint of the target range by late 2027 was reasonable and consistent with its mandate. (See MNI RBA WATCH: Board Ready To Hike Further - Bullock)
PAUSE ARGUMENTS
However, Robinson noted that July inflation expectations had eased, while Q2 private wage data had also loosened.
While the Wage Price Index is not straightforward to interpret because it covers a bundle of jobs, a year-ended rate of 3.2% is a bit strong, given Australia’s poor productivity performance, he said, referring to Wednesday’s Q2 WPI result. But he added that private-sector wages rising by only 0.7% in Q2 and 3.1% y/y, down from 3.4% in December, was encouraging and suggests capacity constraints represent less of an issue.
"So overall supports the RBA keeping rates unchanged, but greater restraint in public sector wages growth would be helpful," he added. “Hopefully this continues, and we see other measures also moderate. But in the current environment, for example with elevated petrol prices and the removal of the rebate, there are upside risks.”
The Board will also weigh developments in other parts of the economy, including the housing market, Robinson said, noting risks identified in the SMP included the possibility that the housing slowdown could be greater than expected or have larger effects on the real economy. "A further hike would obviously weigh on the housing market. The RBA would be carefully thinking through the consequences for the real economy of this."
Aug-20 02:20
The AI boom could cause sharper, less predictable swings in productivity, employment and growth than in past shocks like the dot-com boom, and will make it harder for policymakers to stabilize business cycle fluctuations, Kansas City Federal Reserve economist Nicholas Sly told MNI.
"It looks like AI is being concentrated in the more volatile aspects of the U.S. labor market, so you want to start to ask the question: What does that mean for managing volatility more broadly?" he said in an interview.
Growth in the production of AI-based technologies in recent years increased the volatility of U.S. output by 2.8% from 2019 to 2024, roughly 3.5 times what resulted from the late 1990s IT boom, according to a recent Kansas City Fed paper by Sly and Juan David Munoz Henao.
That volatility could increase in coming years. The timing of the current AI boom – coinciding with retirements among baby boomers pushing down the labor share of income – will tend to further exacerbate any increase in aggregate volatility, he said.
DURATION OF SHOCKS
"It looks like AI is being concentrated in the more volatile aspects of the U.S. labor market, so you want to start to ask the question: what does that mean for managing volatility more broadly?" he said.
"Often you're thinking about how long certain shocks are going to last, or you're thinking about how long consumption or employment is going to stay in a certain path, but if you realize that the U.S. economy is shifting to a new level of dynamism, you might start to rethink some of those questions about how persistent are certain types of economic shocks," he said.
"What we're really saying is we're going to be doing more and more of those volatile economic activities," Sly said. "Over the course of many years, the economy is moving itself towards something that's a bit more volatile, and that can mean that you have bigger swings in employment over time."
Policymakers will really have to think about the persistence of shocks, Sly said, and whether AI disruption is changing previous economic patterns. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Policymakers Must Not Stifle AI - IMF's Adrian)
"Should we think differently about the persistence of shocks, recognizing that the U.S. economy is moving towards some activities that are a little bit more volatile? I think over the next decade those are questions that policymakers are going to have," said Sly, who serves as the KC Fed’s regional economist and its representative in Colorado, Wyoming, and northern New Mexico, leading the local research and public engagement teams.
This AI-driven volatility is less about the monthly jobs report or quarterly GDP numbers, he said. "This is something where we think about the business cycle over the course of several years," as the technology gets further adopted and gets further embedded.
WIDESPREAD
Sly stressed "just how widespread some of these results are" in the labor market’s shift to greater volatility. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: AI Raises Rates Before Boosting Growth - Rachel)
"We're seeing it in employment levels. We're seeing it in hiring decisions. We're seeing it in worker decisions, about whether to stay in or out of the labor force. We're seeing it in production, and that in itself is is worth characterizing," he said. "This is not sort of a niche or particular angle with regard to AI in the workforce."
Aug-19 12:02
China’s Loan Prime Rate will remain unchanged in August as the central bank de-emphasises loan growth and pivots towards structural policy tools, while enhancing liquidity management through additional overnight reverse repos.
The one-year LPR is expected to hold at 3.0% and the five-year tenor at 3.5% on Thursday, marking the 15th consecutive month without change. Both rates were last lowered by 10 basis points in May 2025 after the People’s Bank of China cut the seven-day reverse repo rate – its benchmark policy rate – by 10bp to 1.4% on May 8, followed by a 50bp reduction in the reserve requirement ratio on May 15, largely aimed at countering tariff-related shocks.
As the economy restructures, weak demand from real estate and infrastructure is diminishing the effectiveness of rate cuts in spurring borrowing, while narrowing net interest margins mean authorities must pair policy rate cuts with lower deposit rates to protect bank profitability. This could accelerate the shift of household savings from deposits into wealth management products.
Su Jian, professor at Peking University’s School of Economics and director of the National Center for Economic Research, doubts whether cuts are needed urgently. M2 rose 8.0% y/y and aggregate social financing outstanding increased 7.4% y/y in the first half, while producer prices turned positive, indicating that the main constraint is weak financing demand rather than elevated funding costs, he said. (See MNI: PBOC Seen Cutting Rates, RRR Modestly In H2 – Advisors)
PBOC FOCUS
In its Q2 Monetary Policy Report issued last week, the Bank called for shifting focus away from loan growth as a standalone indicator of credit expansion towards a broader measure that includes bond financing, further reducing the urgency for rate cuts. Policy support is now prioritising quality and efficiency over sheer scale, with greater emphasis on structural optimisation and better use of existing funds, the Bank said.
Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International, said that given the constraints on monetary policy posed by weak credit demand and compressed bank net interest margins, fiscal policy will need to play a greater role through both the composition and scale of government spending.
Fiscal funds should be directed towards key areas such as government procurement, employment subsidies, vocational training and social welfare to stabilise employment and boost investment and consumption, he said. (See MNI INTERVIEW 2: China's Econ Restructure Needs More Support)
STRUCTURAL TOOLS
Lian Ping, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, told MNI this month the central bank is likely to expand targeted relending facilities while lowering their funding costs, particularly for high technology, consumption and private enterprises.
The Report highlighted the role of structural tools, particularly in supporting private enterprises and consumption. By the end of Q2, loans to medium-sized and small private companies totaled CNY15 trillion, with the weighted average rate on newly issued loans falling 40bp y/y in H1.
OVERNIGHT OMO
The Report also placed greater focus on short-end rates, calling for short-term money market rates to track the policy rate and for more frequent overnight reverse repos. The PBOC conducted its first mid-month overnight reverse repo this month to ease tax-season liquidity pressures.
Markets have speculated that the overnight reverse repo rate could be set at around 1.30%, compared with the 1.40% of the 7-day reverse repo rate, which would lower the short-end rate floor. The PBOC could also formally replace the seven-day reverse repo rate with the overnight reverse repo rate as its main policy benchmark in the second half.
However, Su said the overnight reverse repo is currently used mainly for short-term liquidity management, while the seven-day reverse repo remains the policy benchmark. A complete transition is unlikely before 2027, he said.
Aug-19 07:29
The Riksbank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% after its August meeting on Thursday, with focus on the guidance for a possible hike this year and how Governor Erik Thedeen and staff interpret the latest upside surprise to core inflation.
With no new forecast round accompanying this meeting, the reference in June’s guidance to the "increased" likelihood of a hike despite “well-balanced” policy may need to be reworked but the central message looks likely to be unaltered.
The latest data show that the Riksbank underestimated the strength of inflation. While inflation on the CPIF target measure has been running far below the 2% goal and the July flash estimate fell to just 0.7% on the year, it rose to 0.6% ex-energy, 0.4 percentage point above the Riksbank's prediction.
The central bank has also stressed that fiscal measures are creating artificially low inflation readings.
In June’s Monetary Policy Report it estimated that measures including the halving of VAT on food would push the CPIF gauge down by at most 1.5 percentage points in the third quarter but as these measures come off inflation would then move gradually above target in 2028.
That outlook is compatible with tightening ahead, though June’s minutes revealed a split policy committee.
At the dovish end, new Deputy Governor Goran Hjelm said that indirect effects from higher energy prices would need to be "significantly greater than in the baseline scenario for rate rises to become necessary" while on the hawkish side Anna Seim noted that "the risk of inflation becoming too high has increased."
It would, however, be a surprise if anyone were to dissent and call for a hike at the August meeting, with Thedeen and colleagues all seemingly prepared to await further developments and to revisit the outlook after the summer. (See MNI INTERVIEW: 50/50 Hike Chances Due To Iran Doubts-Thedeen)
Aug-18 11:19
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh needs to keep explaining the Fed's reaction function even as he scales back other forward guidance, because aligning market expectations on the rates path is central to policy transmission, former New York and Dallas Fed economist Joseph Tracy told MNI.
He also called on the FOMC to tighten policy, which has drifted to neutral-to-accommodative stance as the neutral rate has risen, and deliver on its price stability mandate after five years of above-target inflation.
Warsh has made a point of differentiating himself from his predecessors by saying little about the FOMC's policy outlook, but eliminating reaction function guidance altogether would undercut the expectations channel through which monetary policy chiefly operates, said Tracy, who worked closely with former New York Fed President William Dudley on communications strategy.
"It's really important for the markets to be able to think like the Fed and better predict those future policy decisions that -- through that expectations channel -- will be better embedded in longer-term interest rates, which are going to affect financial market conditions," Tracy said, adding it will take time for Warsh to adapt to the role and refine his communication style.
"That's where I think it would be a mistake if dialing back to communications makes it even harder to understand how the FOMC is going to be adjusting its policy thinking," he said. "When he (Warsh) says that he's determined to get inflation back down to the 2% objective, what does he mean by that? What actions is he trying to get the committee to take? Is his approach going to be similar to the former chair, or different?"
FEWER SEPS, MORE DETAILS
Tracy, a distinguished fellow at Purdue University’s Daniels School of Business and non-resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said that absent an official FOMC consensus forecast, the Summary of Economic Projections is worth keeping in a revamped form.
Linking each FOMC member's growth, inflation and unemployment projections to their rate dot while keeping submissions anonymous would make the SEP more useful -- as would adding a density forecast showing the probabilities each official attaches to different outcomes, Tracy said.
The FOMC could publish the SEP twice a year rather than four times, providing each release with more information to digest. And there's no advantage to Warsh opting out of submitting forecasts since he's "just one vote" among participants whose views are already anonymous, he said.
A Bank-of-England-type consensus forecast would be "extremely challenging" for the 19-member FOMC, which would presumably have to hammer out agreement ahead of each policy meeting, Tracy said.
"That would be a very tough process, and I don't know if it would actually even be worth the effort, versus just making the SEP maybe not as frequent but conveying more information, a little more nuance. To me, that's probably a better way to go."
TOO LOOSE
Tracy has warned for months the Fed should not delay taking action to push inflation back to target.
He again urged the committee to acknowledge that policy is "miscalibrated" at a time when productivity growth has boosted the real neutral rate to 1%-2%.
"There's just been too much emphasis on this idea of accomplishing this soft landing and not taking any risk to the labor market -- no bumps. Sometimes the central bank just has to be willing to take some of those bumps just to achieve that price stability mandate," he said.
"But they just got very gun-shy." (See MNI INTERVIEW: Fed On Hold Through Next Year - Groen)
Aug-18 09:31
(Corrects story first published on Aug 13 to make clear food price inflation and not overall inflation could be pushed up by 0.67pp)
Euro area food price inflation could be at least 0.67 percentage points higher due to lower agricultural yields after Europe's extreme summer heat, as the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events makes it probable that this underestimates their effects, an economist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research told MNI.
With the UK Met Office saying the summer of 2026 is on course to become the hottest on record, Maximillian Kotz, who is also affiliated with the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, said in an interview "the closest thing that we can try and compare to is ... the 2022 summer for European food price," although this is likely an underestimate of future risks.
A paper he co-authored with ECB economists had found that "the heat in those three months of June, July, August (2022) caused a 0.67 percentage point increase in food [inflation]," separate from the effect of events including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the impact of back-to-back extreme events could be greater. (see MNI INTERVIEW: UK Inflation Expectations More Loosely Anchored )
"We're going to ... get to regimes where these extremes might come back-to-back, and the dynamics start to become different as a result of that, or ... we get to temperatures that we haven't experienced before, and we potentially therefore also have effects that these models haven't been able to see," he said.
Kotz's analysis considered multiple factors, including excessive rainfall or drought, and found the greatest effect was because of temperature extremes.
"Across different crop types and across different regions, the most commonly important drivers are temperature extremes ... For most crops there are essentially temperatures somewhere between 20 and 30 degrees, roughly around 25 degrees, beyond which, if the temperature goes up further, you get really steep declines in agricultural yields," he said.
It is harder to disentangle the effect of high temperatures on finished consumer food products including multiple ingredients, where differing thresholds perhaps offer a smoother response in aggregate, he noted. (See MNI INTERVIEW: UK Consumer Enjoys July 'Burnham Bounce' - GfK)
GLOBAL NATURE
In a historical context “where heat extremes maybe are only occurring in one region at a time, obviously then there's more of a capacity in the supply chains to buffer supply and thereby buffer any impacts on prices for consumers," Kotz dsaid.
"You're more likely to have bigger effects in those kind of contexts, as well as the possibility for countries to start taking more defensive trade policies."
Aug-17 15:45
The Federal Reserve will likely refrain from raising interest rates through next year, even though elevated price pressures warrant tighter monetary policy, former New York Fed economist Jan Groen told MNI.
"If we're going to have a rate hike this year, it's not going to be before December, and my official view is still that the Fed will be on hold this year and next year, just because of the fact that there's a large camp within the FOMC that prefers to stay on hold to keep bringing inflation down, rather than actually proactively moving into a much more restrictive territory," Groen said in an interview.
Groen said this FOMC holds the typical Fed attitude of taking a long time to restrict inflation, rather than in the opposite situation, for example when there's a slowdown in the labor market and the monetary policy reaction comes more quickly. "I think there is a big camp within the FOMC that is still convinced that inflation, core inflation in particular, will switch down to a much slower momentum later this year, going into next year, and they prefer to wait and see how that evolves."
A majority of Fed policymakers are "very content that policy is in a good place to wait and see whether that inflation dynamic will indeed materialize or not," Groen said. "That takes out this year, and next year is a similar thing." (See MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Set To Hike Rates Once This Year-Haslag)
INFLATION
Nonetheless, Groen argues that the Fed should have hiked earlier this year and that underlying inflation is on a path above the central bank's 2% target.
"Inflation momentum is going in the wrong direction, even before the Iran war and all the energy-related shocks that we had," he said. "I am still of that opinion even though we had now two months of relatively benign inflation prints in June and July. The underlying trend of inflation is still quite elevated, certainly relative to the Fed's 2% inflation target."
Trend inflation is closer to 3%, there's a long echo effect from structurally higher tariffs with impacts that are still to come on core inflation, and the impacts from the Iran War and the energy price increases still have yet to feed through to inflation, said Groen, now chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale.
"Usually, a persistent oil supply shock takes about six to nine months to really start to show up visibly, like measurably, in core PCE inflation. I still think that is working itself also through the data, as we speak."
The Fed should have started hiking in March, Groen said.
"Essentially, I think the Fed just hasn't done enough to really bend that trend down towards 2%," he said. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Consider Hike in Sept - Lockhart)
"Starting rate hikes in March would have been the more preferred path for monetary policy. But I also know that that's not very likely for the Fed to do, because when it comes to making policy more restrictive, they are a lot more cautious," he said. "That's just the tradition in the Fed."
Groen also questioned whether even three rate hikes, reversing last year’s cuts, would be enough to bring inflation to target, noting a potential rise in the neutral rate.
GROWTH
Additionally, the labor market is in a very stable place, he said. "Stable but not super buoyant labor demand and maybe even contracting labor supply. That means that you have a relatively stable labor market,” he said.
Groen also remains upbeat in terms of economic growth in 2026, and expects GDP to expand by 2.3% in Q4 over Q4 2025. "I think the consumer is still in pretty good shape," even despite Friday's downbeat retail sales report, he said, noting that the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow gauge points to expansion of 4.3% this quarter.
President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act has continued to boost growth and the consumer, Groen said, while recent tariff refunds have accelerated that trend.
Aug-17 15:37About
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