All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

All signal, no noise

Latest insights

Former Hungary central bank economist Istvan Konya speaks to MNI.

Jun-10 11:59

Former Fed economist Eric Swanson discusses potential changes to Fed communication under Chair Warsh.

Jun-10 10:03

Polish Monetary Policy Council member Marcin Zarzecki speaks to MNI.

Jun-10 08:59

A former RBA economist shares his cash rate view.

Jun-10 02:34

Turkey's central bank decides on rates on Thursday.

Jun-09 16:02

Former BOE MPC member Michael Saunders talks to MNI about productivity gains and policy

Jun-09 12:18

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FI Market Analysis

Monthly inflation rates are expected to moderate in May but Y/Y rates should accelerate further with headline above 4%

June 08, 2026 07:19

We look ahead to the data releases that will be important for UK markets ahead of next week's MPC meeting.

June 08, 2026 02:47

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jun2026_420a69add9.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate for a 5th consecutive decision at 2.25% at the June meeting (announcement on June 10). * Mixed activity data and an uncertain near-term geopolitical outlook make it likely that the BOC will also likely leave its message from the last meeting in April largely intact: potential upside in rates is greater than the downside at this juncture, but maintaining policy is still the "right thing to do for today" as uncertainty over trade and energy prices looms large. * Rate markets imply a full 25bp hike by year-end, but the BOC has no real urgency to make a move given still-soft core inflation readings and possible paradigm-shifting developments from ongoing Canada-US-Mexico trade negotiations and US-Iran talks. * Analysts remain nearly unanimous that the next move will be a hike rather than a cut, but the vast majority see a hold through the rest of this year with 50bp of increases in 2027. See table for more details.

June 05, 2026 08:05

Fed hike timing brought forward to Dec less than two weeks before Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair

June 05, 2026 07:19

FX Market Analysis

Download Full Report Here: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jun2026_420a69add9.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: * The Bank of Canada is overwhelmingly expected by both markets and analysts to maintain its overnight rate for a 5th consecutive decision at 2.25% at the June meeting (announcement on June 10). * Mixed activity data and an uncertain near-term geopolitical outlook make it likely that the BOC will also likely leave its message from the last meeting in April largely intact: potential upside in rates is greater than the downside at this juncture, but maintaining policy is still the "right thing to do for today" as uncertainty over trade and energy prices looms large. * Rate markets imply a full 25bp hike by year-end, but the BOC has no real urgency to make a move given still-soft core inflation readings and possible paradigm-shifting developments from ongoing Canada-US-Mexico trade negotiations and US-Iran talks. * Analysts remain nearly unanimous that the next move will be a hike rather than a cut, but the vast majority see a hold through the rest of this year with 50bp of increases in 2027. See table for more details.

June 05, 2026 08:05

Fed hike timing brought forward to Dec less than two weeks before Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair

June 05, 2026 07:19

Fed hike pricing pulled forward from March to December on blowout payrolls figures and a steady unemployment rate

June 05, 2026 05:33

This morning’s DMP data will be closely watched by the MPC. Single month data will be most important.

June 05, 2026 07:18