MNI Europe Pi: Move Away From Longs Continues (Gilts Excepted)

The recent move away from long-leaning structural positioning broadly continued through the recent holiday period.

MNI Europe Pi: Longs Recede Post-Roll

Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P22122025_3a9956eca6.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * The long-leaning overall structural positioning seen in mid-late November has mostly receded since the quarterly futures roll (Dec-Mar). * That's particularly the case for German contracts where longs are now hard to come by, with OAT also seeing a notable shift toward the short side. * Last week's trade (amid the ECB and BoE meetings) saw shorts set and longs reduced across most contracts. * GERMANY: Bobl remains in long territory but other German contracts have shifted since late November. Bund and Buxl most notably are now in short structural positioning, vs long previously. They are joined by Schatz which previously was "very short". The latest's week trade showed short-setting in each contract, with the exception of Schatz (short cover). * OAT: OAT structural positioning has flipped to short from long previously. Last week's trade was indicative of short-setting. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls and remains so. The latest week saw some long reduction. * BTP: BTP structural positioning has dipped into long vs previously "very long" territory. Trade indicative of short-setting was seen last week.

MNI Europe Pi: Gilts Flat Into Roll, But Overall Long-Leaning

Download Full Document Here: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_P20112025_c1bfe27609.pdf EXECUTIVE SUMMARY * Structural positioning across European bond futures has transitioned from largely short-leaning in September, to largely long-leaning currently. * The shift has been led largely by Germany, though overall there are no structurally "short" contracts in the MNI Europe Pi matrix. * The most recent week's trade (to Nov 19) is largely indicative of long reduction and short-setting, however. * GERMANY: German contracts' structural positioning has gone from broadly flat to largely long, and stands in sharp contrast to short/mixed in our updates covering September. Bobl, Bund and Buxl have each moved into long territory vs flat previously. Schatz remains "very short" however. The latest's week trade showed short-setting in Schatz and Buxl, with longs reduced in Bobl and Bund. * OAT: OAT structural positioning has shifted into long territory, breaking out of the flat range it's been in most of 2025. Latest week's trade was indicative of long reduction. * GILT: Gilt structural positioning was relatively flat going into the Dec/Mar rolls this week, having exited the short territory seen throughout October. The latest week saw some long reduction. * BTP: BTP remains in "very long" territory, and is not far off its summer longs. Trade indicative of long reduction was seen in the most recent week, however.

MNI Europe Pi: Short Lean Fades Away In October

Trade since early October has largely faded what had previously been broadly "short"-leaning structural positioning.