MNI: UK NOV-JAN BRIGHTMINE MEDIAN PAY AWARD 3.2% (3.6% OCT-DEC)

* MNI: UK NOV-JAN BRIGHTMINE MEDIAN PAY AWARD 3.2% (3.6% OCT-DEC)

MNI: JAPAN JAN EXPORTS +16.8% Y/Y; DEC +5.1%

* MNI: JAPAN JAN EXPORTS +16.8% Y/Y; DEC +5.1% * JAPAN JAN EXPORTS POST 5TH STRAIGHT Y/Y RISE

AUSTRALIA DATA: Q4 Wages Forecast At 0.8%q/q, 3.4%y/y, RBA Forecast 3.4% As Well

Australian Q4 wages data is due today, with the market expecting an unchanged outcome from Q3 last year. The q/q wage outcome is forecast at 0.8%, while y/y is projected at 3.4%. Note the RBA forecast for Q4 was 3.4%y/y as well, which it made at the start of the month, when it released its Statement On Monetary Policy. The central bank sees y/y wage momentum slowing over the forecast horizon to 3.1%y/y mid this year and then 3.0% by mid 2028. This is consistent with the RBA's unemployment rate outlook (steadily rising to 4.6% by mid 2028). * The BBG forecast range of sell-side economists for the q/q outcome is 0.7-0.9%. Since the start of 2024 the range on wage outcomes has been a 0.74%q/q low to a 0.97%q/q high. The last two quarters has seen outcomes near 0.80%, which the market consensus is expecting to be repeated in Q4. We did see the unemployment rate dip late last year to 4.1% from a high of 4.4% (Sep 2025), but this isn't expected to drive stronger wages growth. * The BBG forecast range for the y/y outcome is 3.3-3.5%. Since wage momentum eased through the first half of 2024 we have been in a 3.2-3.5%y/y range for the y/y outcomes.

CANADA DATA: Sales Data Close 2025 On Solid Note, But Q4 Looks Weak Overall

Wholesale and manufacturing sales closed 2025 with solid December growth, but remained soft for the quarter as a whole. * Core wholesale sales (ex petroleum, products, other hydrocarbons, oilseeds & grains) rose 2.0% M/M, and 1.9% in chained volume terms, marking the strongest report since July 2025. It wasn't enough to arrest a 7.2% 3M/3M annualized fall in core volumes however, following drops in September and October. * On Monday, StatCan reported that manufacturing shipments likewise saw a reprieve in December at the end of a weak quarter: they rose 0.6% in nominal and 1.8% in volume terms, following contractions of 1.3% /2.6% respectively. Again, the 3M/3M annualized rate was sharply negative, at -5.3%. * So while a pickup at the end of Q4 ensured growth wasn't quite as bad as feared, it still implies some of the worst activity momentum in sales since the sharply negative GDP quarter of Q2. This is set to contrast with December retail sales (out Friday) which are expected to see a flat ex-auto reading after 1.7% gains in November (but like the other sales figures, a negative quarterly reading overall). * That release will help shore up expectations for Q4 GDP which is out Feb 27; overall the quarter is looking to flat-to-slightly negative growth, with weak domestic numbers offset by a positive contribution from net exports.