US DATA: Dallas Fed Weekly Index Ends Year Tracking Solid Q4 GDP Growth

The Dallas Fed's Weekly Economic Index concluded 2026 on a bright note, with the 4-quarter-scaled GDP growth rate ticking up in the Dec 27 week to 2.23% Y/Y from 2.21% prior. * This should be caveated slightly by the fact that railroad traffic, electricity output, and fuel sales were not released for the latest week due to holidays, but it kept the 13-week (ie quarterly) moving average rate at 2.24% for a 6th consecutive week between 2.24-2.25%. * The WEI was consistent with real GDP growth of 4+% Q/Q SAAR in Q3, which was closer to the mark than most (the official reading was 4.3%). * Its final reading of Q4 means it tracked the equivalent of 2.5-3.0% Q/Q SAAR growth for the quarter, a little below the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate of 3.0%. We get the next Atlanta Fed reading on Monday after the ISM Manufacturing release for December.

US DATA: Rise In Manufacturing PMI Activity (And Prices) Moderated At Year-End

The final December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the flash reading of 51.8, confirming a 5-month low for the index (52.2 Nov). In turn, the details of the report confirmed the flash data in portraying a broad-based softening amid overall growth in manufacturing (S&P Global describes it as "a sustained, albeit slower, improvement in US manufacturing sector operating conditions") with inflation remaining elevated but diminishing from the acute pressures seen earlier in the year. Notably, job creation was portrayed as solid amid optimism over conditions in 2026. Some highlights from the report: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7ca2ebfa9cce4c768e0cf449b a966293: * On activity: "Weaker growth emanated from a contraction in new order intakes....Exports were also a source of demand weakness, falling for the seventh successive month....A reduction in demand led to weaker output gains in December, the softest in three months...production increased sufficiently for firms to continued adding to their stocks of finished goods for the fifth month in a row...Work outstanding declined for the fourth month in a row during December, partly due to an expansion in labor capacity." * On employment: "firms reported that employment growth was sustained into the end of 2025, with job creation reaching the most pronounced since August...firms filled vacancies in anticipation of a stronger 2026." * On inflation: "Tariffs continued to push up input prices during December, with vendors reportedly raising charges. Although input cost inflation weakened since November to an 11-month low, it remained historically elevated. Similarly, manufacturers also recorded their least pronounced uplift in charges since the start of 2025, but inflation was again comfortably above trend." * On the outlook: "manufacturing firms held a positive outlook regarding the year ahead for sales and production" though "the degree of confidence eased since November amid a lack of new work to replace existing orders and the ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy."

MNI: US DEC FINAL MANUF PMI 51.8 (51.8 FLASH, 52.2 NOV)

* MNI: US DEC FINAL MANUF PMI 51.8 (51.8 FLASH, 52.2 NOV)

CANADA DATA: Another Soft PMI Points To Continued Soft Manufacturing Activity

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Canada was relatively steady in December at 48.6 vs 48.4 in November (no consensus), consistent with recent other indicators pointing to flat growth in the 4th quarter. This was the 11th consecutive month below 50.0, consistent with chronic softening activity in a sector beleaguered by the US-Canada trade conflict. * Per the report: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/78c6ddcb80cf4ef0b14fc9d c3c091c86: "The performance of Canada's manufacturing economy worsened again at the end of 2025. Output and new orders fell as tariffs and broad market uncertainty continued to weigh on the sector. Supply-side delays were again apparent, whilst the survey's price indices picked up since November. Job losses were also reported, whilst confidence in the outlook remained historically subdued." * Tariffs remained the key theme. "Panellists reported that market uncertainty remained a key depressor of sales, especially in relation to tariffs. This was again especially the case for exports, which declined steeply and at the quickest rate since July...tariffs also continued to impact supply chains and prices at year end. Average lead times for the delivery of inputs lengthened to a solid degree amid customs delays, especially in relation to US imports. Due to tariffs, firms in some instances reported sourcing inputs from suppliers based in countries outside of the US, which also led to a deterioration of delivery times." * And this maintained a floor on prices: "Meanwhile, input price inflation picked up slightly, therefore remaining marked overall (albeit still below levels typically seen in 2025). Firms noted that metals like steel had increased in price, and tariffs were generally reported to be inflationary. Wherever possible, higher input costs were passed on to firms in the form of increased output charges. Overall, selling price inflation picked up to a six-month high." * Tuesday's release of Services/Composite PMIs and Wednesday's Ivey PMI will help round out the December growth picture. * October's -0.34% M/M growth rate for GDP by Industry with just +0.1% expected for November puts Q4 tracking to post a sharp slowdown in GDP growth from Q3's 2.6% Q/Q SAAR - probably below the 1.0% projected by the Bank of Canada.