MNI: RBA LEAVES CASH RATE AT 3.6%

* MNI: RBA LEAVES CASH RATE AT 3.6%

US DATA: A Broadly Disappointing ISM Manufacturing Survey For October

The ISM manufacturing survey for October underwhelmed across the board, undershooting implications from regional Fed surveys, the MNI Chicago PMI and what continues to be a much more optimistic S&P Global PMI. New orders disappointed a bounce seen elsewhere and prices paid fell to the lowest since January, although new orders less inventories did at least point to upside for manufacturing activity ahead. * ISM manufacturing: 48.7 in Oct (cons 49.5) after 49.1 in Sep * New orders: 49.4 in Oct after 48.9 in Sep. The small 0.5pt increase after the -2.5 drop in September is disappointing considering the regional Fed surveys along with the MNI Chicago PMI had pointed to a solid bounce in new orders. * Interestingly however, inventories didn't echo the sharp increase from the S&P Global US PMI (its sharpest increase since the data started in 2007) but instead fell 1.9pts to 45.8 for the lowest since Oct 2024. That in turn meant that the new orders less inventories metric increased to 3.6 for its highest since January, at least implying some upside to manufacturing activity ahead. * Prices paid: 58.0 in Oct (cons 62.5) after 61.9 in Sep. Consensus came from a typically limited survey of six analyst estimates but had looked reasonable considering the regional Fed surveys were on average were little changed on the month whilst continuing to run at higher outright levels. * Prices are an area where the ISM report is more in line with the PMI, with prices paid at their lowest since January vs February in the PMI. * Employment: 46.0 in Oct after 45.3 in Sep, marking a third consecutive increase for its highest since May but still firmly in contraction territory. The index has been in expansionary territory (>50) in just two months of the past two years, with a high in that period of 50.4. We put much more weight on the ISM services survey for this component.

MNI: US ISM OCT MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 48.7

* MNI: US ISM OCT MANUF PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 48.7 * US ISM OCT MANUF PRICES PAID INDEX 58.0

US DATA: PMIs Point To Robust Manufacturing As Inventories Climb

The manufacturing PMI was revised higher in the final October print to 52.5, leaving a larger increase from 52.0 in September but still below the 3+ year high of 53.0 in August. Finished goods inventories increased at their fastest since the data began in 2007, hinting at further volatility within national account data details ahead, whilst input cost inflation confirmed its softest since February. * S&P Global US Mfg PMI: 52.5 (cons & flash 52.2) in Oct after 52.0 in September. * The press release (in full here: https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/366930acdfb446568e98f20 0e019f63e) points to similar drivers to the flash release of Oct 24 including input cost inflation at its softest since February, but goes into more detail. * Domestic-led growth: "The performance of the US manufacturing economy improved again in October, with both output and new orders rising at stronger rates. However, growth was domestic led as new exports fell due to tariffs reportedly negatively impacting international trade." * Limited optimism but some eye onshoring gains: "Challenges in predicting future trade policy also served to limit confidence in the outlook, although some manufacturers expect to benefit in time from the reshoring of industrial output to the United States." * Lowest input cost inflation since February: "Tariffs remained a key source of higher input costs during October with latest data showing another round of historically elevated inflation - albeit the lowest since February. Selling prices were raised markedly in response, and to a quicker degree than September's recent low." * Strong inventory build: "Stocks of finished goods rose to an extent not previously recorded since data * were first available in 2007, while stocks of purchased inputs showed the second-largest rise seen for over three years. While stock building was partly fueled by expectations of rising demand, some factories also reported increased safety-stock building amid fears of supply shortages or to protect against further price rises, in turn reflecting the recent impact of import tariffs."