US DATA: NY Fed SCE: Steady Inflation Expectations, Still-Soft Labor Outlook

The overall trends in the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations suggest steadying inflation expectations but elevated concerns over labor market prospects, largely mirroring other peer surveys. * February's edition showed the median 1-year ahead expected inflation rate ticked down to 3.00% from 3.09%, with longer-term gauges relatively steady (3Y 3.00% after 2.98% and and 5Y 2.98% after 3.00%). This of course comes before the Middle East war-related spike in energy prices in March which if sustained would likely push up inflation expectations accordingly, thus rendering the February report somewhat stale. * On other metrics, there were mixed though largely positive signals sent on consumer sentiment. In the most positive sign, debt delinquency expectations (not being able to make minimum debt payments) fell to 11.6% from 13.7% prior, lowest since February 2024 after hitting a post-pandemic high above 15% in December. The December spike had been widely cited as a warning sign for consumer fragility so this pullback will One-year ahead spending growth expectations and income growth expectations were flat at 4.9% and 2.9%, respectively. * On the labor front, however, results were very mixed. Median expected earnings growth pulled back to 2.54% from the prior 10-month high 2.70%, but mean probability of losing a job dropped to a 3-month low 13.8% from 14.8% prior and expectations of a higher unemployment rate 1-year ahead fell to 40.0% from 41.9% (a 6-month low), echoing a similar metric in the UMichigan survey. * The expectation of finding a job in 3 months if one's job was lost today fell to 44.0% from 45.6%, close to the series low 43.1% in December in something of a warning sign for future unemployment (see chart), while the mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next twelve months fell 2.8pp to 15.9% percent, a new series low for what is basically the expected quits rate.

US DATA: Chicago Fed CARTS Sees Feb Core Retail Pickup, But Still-Weak Momentum

Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) preliminary estimate of February ex-autos retail sales is +0.2%, vs the advance Census Bureau retail sales actual figure of 0.0% in January. The CARTS estimate was fairly close to the mark in January, at -0.1%. * While this would mark a return to growth after two consecutive flat months (December ex-autos was 0.0%), the recent slowdown in core retail sales means the 3M/3M annualized rate of growth would slow to 1.8% from 2.3% in January, which would mark the weakest momentum since April 2024. * With real growth in this category expected to be negative (-0.1% in February per CARTS' inflation-adjusted metric), implying similar in the retail Control Group (see chart), it would take a firmly positive March figure to boost real goods PCE in Q1 after Q4 saw a 0.1% Q/Q SAAR contraction.

GERMAN DATA: Pullback From German Industry In January

German data on industry for January suggests a pullback in previously strong manufacturing orders towards the beginning of this year, while these previous strong orders are also not filtering through to production yet. Factory orders highlights: * "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 0.4% lower than in the previous month. These figures illustrate the high level of December 2025 when new orders reached the highest value since February 2022 mainly due to large-scale orders. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from November 2025 to January 2026 were 7.4% higher than in the previous three months; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders increased by 1.5%." * On M/M drivers: "Following the very high volume of large-scale orders in December 2025, new orders were back to normal in several branches of manufacturing in January 2026. This was particularly reflected by new orders in the manufacture of fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment), which decreased by 39.4% month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment. In December 2025, new orders rose by 29.7% in this sector compared with the previous month. The declines witnessed in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (-13.5%) and the manufacture of basic metals (-15.1%) are attributable to the smaller volume of large-scale orders registered in January 2026. By contrast, the increase in new orders in the automotive industry (+10.4%) and for the manufacture of other transport equipment (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; +9.2%) had a positive impact on the overall result." Industrial production highlights: * "The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that production was 0.9% higher in the period from November 2025 to January 2026 than in the previous three months. After revision of the provisional results, production decreased by 1.0% in December 2025 compared with November 2025 (provisional figure: -1.9%)." * On M/M drivers: "The month-on-month decrease registered in January 2026 is largely due to the lower production in the "manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment" sector (-12.4%). The drop in output witnessed in the pharmaceutical industry (-11.9%) and in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (-6.8%) also negatively impacted the overall result. By contrast, the increase recorded in energy production (+10.3%) had a positive effect. The considerable growth observed in this sector may be attributable to the exceptionally low temperatures in January 2026. On the other hand, the high number of days of ice and frost may have had a negative effect on production in civil engineering (construction of roads, railways, bridges and tunnels, for example). Production in civil engineering dropped by 7.5% in January 2026, while production in construction increased by 2.9% overall."

MNI: GERMANY JAN IND PROD -0.5% M/M (-1.0% DEC, REV FROM -1.9%)

* MNI: GERMANY JAN IND PROD -0.5% M/M (-1.0% DEC, REV FROM -1.9%) * GERMANY JAN IND PROD -1.2% Y/Y (0.4% DEC, REV FROM -0.6%)