US DATA: Consumer Credit Jumps To End 2025, Overall Impulse Remains Subdued

Consumer credit jumped in December, with total consumer credit owned and securitized up $24.0B ($8.0B expected, $4.7B prior) in the highest reading for 12 months. The flow was split fairly evenly by recent standards, with revolving credit up $13.8B ($-1.7B prior) and nonrevolving $10.2B ($6.4B prior). * (Revolving makes up 25% of overall consumer credit, largely made up of credit cards; nonrevolving credit is basically made up of student and auto loans.) * That's a solid end to 2025 for credit growth, particularly for revolving/credit card activity, so bears watching though overall it hasn't been a major driver of consumption. * We saw some of the strongest credit card demand since 2022 in Q4 2025 per the Fed's latest SLOOS survey, with lending standards loosening slightly (and demand for auto loans dropped considerably, potentially boding ill for non-revolving growth). * Y/Y total consumer credit growth posted 2.4%, led by revolving (3.4%; non-revolving has been steady at 2% for several months). With the economy growing by well above these levels in nominal terms, this still means that consumers are deleveraging, with total credit as a % of GDP set to post continued 12+ year lows, albeit largely led by non-revolving as opposed to revolving.

MNI: US DEC CONSUMER CREDIT +$24.0B

* MNI: US DEC CONSUMER CREDIT +$24.0B * US DEC REVOLVING CREDIT +$13.8B * US DEC NONREVOLVING CREDIT +$10.2B

US DATA: CARTS Implies Weaker Core Retail Sales In January, Momentum Still Solid

The Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s preliminary estimate for January ex-auto retail sales growth is 0.1% M/M (on both a nominal and inflation-adjusted basis), which if borne out in the Census Bureau's official report would be the slowest since September, following on from 0.5%+ in the prior 2 months including CARTS's December estimate. * We still haven't received Census's shutdown-delayed December report (that's out on Tuesday Feb 10), with January's still not yet on the schedule. * In the meantime, this is a slightly more cautionary January estimate than the Redbook series which signaled continued robust growth through January. * Even so, CARTS points to a pickup in control group (largely made up of ex-autos sales) sales momentum, with the implied 3M/3M ex-autos annualized figure appearing to rise to 4.5% in January from 4.2% in December (and the recent trough of 3.9% in November). * Note that CARTS's final estimate for January will be Monday Feb 16 (slightly delayed due to the CPI report postponement).

CANADA DATA: Ivey PMI Adds More Evidence To Economic Slowdown Outlook

The Ivey Purchasing Manager's Index dipped to 50.9 in January from 51.9 prior, though remained above the 50 mark for the 7th month in the last 8. The internals were fairly soft, but nothing that particularly stood out in the context of the volatile 12 months. * Employment fell to 51.1 from 53.0 (again weaker but still above 50), with supplier deliveries edging up to a 6-month high 49.2 (indicating slower deliveries) and inventories at a 3-month high 50.9. The prices index ticked up to 64.8 from 63.2, though that's well below 2025 highs. * Overall the broader trend (looking at the 3-month moving average) is in accordance with other surveys through January (including S&P Global PMIs) as well as advance monthly GDP data in suggesting a stalling of economic momentum since the Q3 2025 bounce. * The preponderance of evidence suggests it would be unsurprising to see a GDP contraction in Q4 2025 with continued flat growth in Q1 2026 at this stage - see chart.