US DATA: NFIB Inflation Components Ease But Still Stubbornly High

The NFIB small business survey for February saw differing degrees of moderation in pricing components although it doesn't wildly change the takeaway, implying inflation stuck above the 2% target. * The net share reporting price increases over the past three months saw a further moderation with 24% vs 26% in Jan, 30% in Dec and 34% in Nov at what was its highest since Mar 2023. * The net share expecting price increases over the next three months meanwhile unwound a sizeable push higher in January, dropping back 4pts to 28% for a joint low since Aug 2025. * Context remains important though, with both metrics above historical "normal" readings, at least comparing with the pre-pandemic period. The planned 3mth is at 28% vs ~22% averaged pre-pandemic and the actual 3mth is at 24% vs ~12%. * From the press release (link: https://www.nfib.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/NFIB-SBET-Report-Feb.-2026.pd f): "Twelve percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from January and ranking as the third top issue." * It's against a backdrop of small business optimism disappointing in February as it eased to 98.8 (cons 99.6) after 99.3 in January, although it broadly keeps to recent monthly ranges that sit between levels seen both before and after the Nov 2024 US presidential election (lows and highs).

MNI: US NFIB FEB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 98.8

* MNI: US NFIB FEB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 98.8

GERMAN DATA: Some Uncertainty Over Military Fingerprints In Factory Orders

The details of military-related German factory orders data (released yesterday) shows "weapons and ammunition" accounted for 2.2pp of the 17.5pp sequential drag in factory orders in January (-11.1% M/M in Jan after +6.4% M/M in Dec). "Other transport equipment" accounted for a heavy 6.7pp although the extent of the split between military / non-military orders is unclear. Details below: * Weapons and ammunition production fell 86% in January but remained elevated at a 271 non-seasonally adjusted index level (2021=100) following November's 674% and December's 101% M/M jumps. * "Other transport equipment" fell 59.5% M/M in January but also remained elevated at a 164.3 index level following 31% and 63% rises at the end of 2025. The category includes "manufacture of military fighting vehicles" (for which there is no specific data published). * Within this, "Manuf. of air and spacecraft and related machinery", also a subset of the "other" category, fell 69% in January after a 76% rise in December. Destatis confirmed to us that the category is mostly civil aviation, but it may also be that some military orders filtering are through which are not classified as "fighting vehicles".

MNI: NORWAY FEB FOOD/NON-ALC BEV CPI-ATE 3.3% Y/Y (4.2% JAN)

* MNI: NORWAY FEB FOOD/NON-ALC BEV CPI-ATE 3.3% Y/Y (4.2% JAN) * NORWAY FEB ALCOHOL/TOBACCO CPI-ATE 3.5% Y/Y (3.8% JAN) * NORWAY FEB ENERGY CPI-AT 18.9% Y/Y (37.1% JAN) * NORWAY FEB RENT CPI-ATE 3.9% Y/Y (3.9% JAN)