US DATA: Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index Sees Steady Q1 Growth

The Dallas Fed's Weekly Economic Index (WEI) printed 2.48% in the week to Feb 28 (scaled to 4-quarter growth), cooler than the 2.61% prior and the 2.90% the week before that (which had been the best since April 2025). * The 13-week (ie quarterly) moving average picked up marginally to 2.40% though, which was the highest seen since October 2025. * If this growth rate carries on through the end of March, it would imply a Q/Q SAAR growth rate of around 1.5% in the quarter, similar to Q4 but lower than the 3.0% currently foreseen by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. * However the moving average appears to be picking up, potentially signalling a growth figure above 2% for the quarter. And historically it's been better at capturing domestic private sector demand dynamics, vs the trade/government shutdown-distorted figures seen in recent quarters. * A reminder of the WEI's inputs: "To measure consumer behavior, we include the Redbook same-store retail sales index and the Rasmussen Consumer Index. To measure labor market conditions, we include initial and continuing unemployment insurance claims, the American Staffing Association Index of temporary and contract employment, and federal tax withholding data from Booth Financial Consulting. For production, we include U.S. steel production from the American Iron and Steel Institute, U.S. electricity output data from the Edison Electric Institute, a measure of fuel sales based on Energy Information Administration data, and total railroad traffic from the Association of American Railroads."

US DATA: Revelio Publishes Another Soft Initial Payrolls Report

Revelio Labs' -17k estimate for February's nonfarm payrolls change would mark the 3rd worst reading in the series going back to 2021 and clearly weaker than the +58k MNI median seen for Friday's official employment report. However there are very large caveats to this, the main one being that the series is prone to significant revisions: January's print was initially reported at -13k but that's now +27k (and either way much lower than the "official" nonfarms payrolls at +172k); December's was initially +71k but that is now +7k, and so on. * For what it's worth, the report shows -18k private sector payrolls (+17k prior), with government payrolls up 1k. * Education and Health service sector jobs are estimated to have risen 20k for a slowdown from 30k gains prior; contrast this with retail trade jobs (-35k) which have failed to rise in 24 consecutive months vs not a single month in which education/health jobs have contracted. * Those factors make it difficult to take the Revelio series too literally, with other signs (including ADP's +58k for February) pointing to a decent employment performance last month. * Overall Revelio's numbers have largely tracked the slowdown in job growth over the last 5 years however and the BLS jump in healthcare/education jobs in January looks like an extreme outlier vs the ADP and Revelio series. * Indeed as our nonfarm payrolls preview notes: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Feb2026_Preview_d9435a699d.pdf, one of the big areas to watch in the February report is the extent to which healthcare jobs pull back after a potential boost from a severe January flu season. * Revelio estimates monthly changes in unemployment by looking at professional profiles sourced from professional networking websites eg LinkedIn: "RPLS provides a set of employment statistics derived from over 100 million professional profiles sourced from professional networking websites. After deduplication, adjustments for reporting lags, and reweighing to ensure that the data resembles the national distribution of the workforce, these data yield timely and detailed measures of employment dynamics."

MNI: US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -132 BCF TO 1,886 BCF FEB 27 WK

* US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -132 BCF TO 1,886 BCF FEB 27 WK

US DATA: Solid Import Prices With Tariff Concessions In Rear View Mirror

Import price inflation was broadly as expected in the January report, a little softer than consensus in January itself but offset by an upward revision to December, with still solid monthly rates. It continues a trend of more recent import inflation after China-led tariff concessions last year. * Overall import prices increased 0.2% M/M (NSA, cons 0.3) in Jan after an upward revised 0.2% (initial 0.1) in Dec. * Import prices ex petroleum, our preferred metric, increased 0.4% M/M (cons 0.5) in Jan after an upward revised 0.5% M/M in Dec (initial 0.4) following an average 0.3% M/M through Oct-Nov. * Whilst a tenuous comparison being a NSA series, these past four months have all seen the strongest monthly increases since Apr 2024. Indeed, the 0.36% averaged over Oct-Jan compares with an average 0.14% from a year ago. * It left ex-oil import prices up 1.3% Y/Y for the fastest pace since May having bottomed at 0.4% in Sept. * Country-level revisions were on the small side for this release this month, continuing to suggest that China stood out with concessions made in the face of US tariffs last year but with this broadly stopping in recent months. * Specifically, overall import prices from China increased 0.3% M/M vs -0.4% in Jan 2025, -0.4% in Jan 2024 and -0.5% in Jan 2023. It followed a more typical 0.0% M/M in Dec considering the -0.1% in Dec 2024, -0.1% in Dec 2023 and -0.2% in Dec 2022. * This is a big change from the heavy declines of -0.8% M/M in both April and May in the face of US trade policy escalation. It's starting to be reflected by the Y/Y rates although they remain firmly negative at -2.6% Y/Y in Jan after -3.3% in Dec, -3.4% in Nov and a record low of -3.5% in July for a series going back to 2004. * Elsewhere, prices of imports from the EU climbed 1.0% Y/Y in January for a fresh high since Dec 2024 having bottomed at -1.0% Y/Y in April. Attempting to strip out oil price effects from major oil producers, prices of manufactured imports from Canada increased 2.4% Y/Y (highest since Dec 2022) and from Mexico increased 1.4% Y/Y (eased from 2.0% in Dec). These USMCA countries have seen the smallest adjustments in trade balances with the US since the start of the second Trump administration, although pressures of course remain on the trade body.