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February Refunding Review: Guidance And Cash Management Twists
* Treasury's February 2026 Refunding round brought unchanged nominal coupon
auction sizes for the Feb-Apr quarter as anticipated, though came with some
modest surprises on the guidance and cash management fronts.
* Below is the updated expected issuance table - as we explain below, risks are
now tilted toward nominal coupon auction sizes next increasing only in 2027,
as opposed to late 2026 which had been expected by many (including MNI).
* March's sales begin next week: on March 10 with $58B in 3Y Note, continuing
on March 11 with $39B in 10-Year Note Reopen (CUSIP: 91282CPZ8), and March 12
with $22B in 30-Year Bond Reopen (CUSIP: 912810UR7).
* March will see a total of $362B in coupon issuance, including $19B 10Y TIPS
and $28B 2Y FRN.
* Monthly Auction Review: February's coupon auctions were mixed, with three
decent sized tails, one solid trade-through and three auctions coming in more
or less on the screws.
March 05, 2026 12:40