USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction
- RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
- RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
- RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
- PRICE: 156.74 @ 06:42 BST May 31
- SUP 1: 156.17/154.49 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 153.57 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play and Thursday’s pullback appears to be a correction. Resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, have recently been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on key support at 154.49, the 50-day EMA, and 153.57, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 29, 2024
Germany, France, Greece and Belgium sold bills this week. Issuance was E12.9bln in first round operations, down from E20.7bln last week.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 2: 97.03/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- RES 1: 96.57 High Apr 29
- PRICE: 95.78 @ Close Apr 30
- SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
- SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.03, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 01-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 07-May | 0001 | Apr | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 07-May | 0930 | Apr | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 09-May | 0001 | Apr | RICS House Prices |
| 09-May | 0001 | Apr | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 09-May | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 09-May | 1230 | BoE Press Conference | |
| 09-May | 1400 | Apr | BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data |
| 09-May | 1715 | BOE's Pill MPR Virtual Q&A | |
| 10-May | 0700 | Mar | GDP/Trade/Services/Production/Construction |
| 10-May | 0700 | 1Q | GDP First Estimate |
| 10-May | 1215 | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing | |
| 14-May | 0700 | Mar/Apr | Labour Market Survey |
