GOLD: TD Securities Initiate Tactical Short in Gold
Aug-28 2024 12:49
TD Securities initiate a tactical short in gold at $2533, targeting $2300 with a stop-loss at $2675
- They write that their flow-based analysis suggests that downside risks are now more potent in gold, and initiate a tactical short.
- TDS note that macro funds have scarcely held more gold than they do today, with their estimates now at levels that marked local highs in 2019 and 2016. CTAs are also effectively 'max long' and Chinese ETF outflows have resumed.
- They see Asia as on a buyer's strike in physical, with visible short positions remains near decade-lows, while narratives in gold markets are unanimously bullish. As such, they see significant risks to the near-term outlook tied to positioning, despite the strong fundamental backdrop.
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PIPELINE: Multi-Tranche Issuance from Honeywell, Mercedes Benz on Tap
Jul-29 2024 12:42
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 7/29 $1.5B Royal Caribbean 8.5NC3
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- 7/29 $Benchmark Moody's Corp 10Y +115a
- 7/29 $Benchmark Chubb 5Y +80a, 10Y +100a
- 7/29 $Benchmark L3Harris 30Y +140a
- 7/29 $Benchmark Honeywell 3Y +65a, +5Y +85a, +7Y +90a, Tap 03/01/35 +100a
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GBPUSD TECHS: Retracement Mode
Jul-29 2024 12:35
- RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3107 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low
- RES 1: 1.2938/3044 High Jul 24 / 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2833 @ 13:31 BST Jul 29
- SUP 1: 1.2807 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.2784 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2741 Low Jul 4
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support
GBPUSD has started the week on a bearish note, extending the reversal that began Jul 17. Support around the 20-day EMA has been cleared and this signals scope for a move towards 1.2784, the 50-day EMA. The move down appears to be a correction - for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3044, the Jul 17 high.
STIR: BLOCK: Sep'24 Midcurve Put
Jul-29 2024 12:32
- 8,000 0QU4 95.75 puts, 2.5 ref 96.255 at 0825:53ET
