MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Hungary Election Preview

Executive Summary

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is seeking an unprecedented fourth consecutive term as head of his country’s government in the general election taking place on 3 April. The contest is set to be the closest Orban and his governing right-wing populist Fidesz Party has faced since coming to office in 2010. Hungary’s various opposition parties from across the political spectrum have united behind a single candidate, conservative mayor Péter Márki-Zay, in an effort to oust Orban and his government.

In this article we provide a brief outline of the main parties and candidates involved, how the Hungarian election works, analysis of opinion polling and betting markets in the run-up to the election, and post-election scenario analysis with assigned probabilities.

Full article PDF attached below:

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Chart 1. Hungary Election Opinion Polling (Main Parties), % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Republikon, Medián, Real-PR 93, IDEA, Závecz Research, Nézőpont, Publicus, Társadalomkutató, Alapjogokért Központ, e-benchmark, Iránytű, MNI