US: Opinion Polling Sees Households Downbeat On Economy In Coming Months
The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. Should the public's feeling remain largely downbeat on the outlook for the economy for a sustained period of time, it will almost certainly begin to feed into the political narrative as potential GOP presidential, Senate and House candidates begin to launch/ramp-up their campaigns ahead of 2024.
- Economist/YouGov (2/25-28) findings on Americans' economic outlook (Full tables: Hidden PDF). Six months from now do you think there will be....?
- A higher rate of inflation: 44%, The same rate of inflation: 26%, A lower rate of inflation: 17%
- Higher gas prices: 50%, The same gas prices: 25%, Lower gas prices: 11%
- Fewer jobs: 27%, The same amount of jobs: 43%, More jobs: 16%
- Higher interest rates: 56%, The same interest rates: 22%, Lower interest rates: 5%
- The polling also takes into account respondents views on various foreign policy issues. With regards to the US' allies vs enemies, there remains a stark partisan divide. Those who backed President Joe Biden in 2020 are more likely to view Ukraine as an 'ally' compared to supporters of Donald Trump (53% to 19%). Meanwhile, Trump voters viewed China as an 'enemy' by a much wider margin compared to those opting for Biden (28% to 63%).
Source: YouGov, February 25 - 28, 2023 - 1500 U.S. Adult Citizens
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Support At The 50-Day EMA Exposed
- RES 4: 117-00 High Sep 8 2022
- RES 3: 116-08 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 115-21 High Jan 20
- RES 1: 114-28/115-13 High Jan 27 / High
- PRICE: 114-17 @ 16:26 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 114-05+ Low Jan 30
- SUP 2: 114-00 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 113-17+ 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 bull leg
- SUP 4: 112-29 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 bull leg
Treasury futures traded to new lows Monday, taking out key support at the Jan 17 low of 114-09+. The break of this level undermines the recent bull theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Next support undercuts at the 50-day EMA, at 114-00. The average represents a key support. On the upside a key short-term resistance is at 115-13, the Jan 25 high. A break would ease any developing bearish threat.
US TSYS: Market Roundup: German Inf Data Still Delayed; Tactical Month-End Play
Tsys trading firmer at the moment - inside range with Bonds well off early session highs. Several factors at play as markets otherwise await Wed's FOMC policy annc.
- US FI broke higher after Q4 ECI data rises less than expected: 1% vs. 1.1% est (Q3 1.2%), equities reacted positively as well as SPX eminis bounced back to steady at the time (ESH3 4032.5). Rates peaked following round of mixed data (Home Prices dip 0.1%, Chicago PMI contracts: 44.3 vs. Dec 45.1, Consumer Confidence decline 107.1; EST. 109.0).
- Rate support evaporated around midmorning, long end extended session lows amid spurious reports that German inflation data (delayed since late last wk) had been released - it has not. MNI has received nothing from German stats agency that can back up any German Jan inflation release. MNI's latest confirmation is that the Destatis release has been delayed, and publication date to be confirmed later this week.
- Meanwhile, brief opportunity for tactical month-end buyers: reversal in Tsys (partially spurred by Block sale of 6.6k FVH3 at 109-06) presented a speculative opp ahead month end rebalancing today. Indeed, Tsys have gradually rebounded off lows, 30YY currently 3.6537% (+.0016 ) vs. 3.6820% high.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb01 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0765-70(E675mln), $1.0790-05(E996mln), $1.0850-55(E718mln), $1.0885-10(E3.0bln)
- USD/JPY: Y129.00($596mln), Y130.50($636mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6920(A$527mln), $0.7000(A$572mln), $0.7140-50(A$683mln), $0.7185(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CNY: Cny6.82($1.1bln)
