US TSYS: Tsys Futures Steady Ahead Of Key US Data Later Today
Jun-12 2024 05:30
- Treasury futures are little changed today, as the markets awaits US CPI and the FOMC later tonight. TU is - 00¼ at 101-31⅛, off highs of 101-31¼, while TY is unchanged at 109-17+, off earlier highs of 109-18.
- Volumes are on the low side this morning: TU 15k, FV 30k TY 51k
- Tsys Flows: 1,500 Block likely buyer of FVU4, Large SOFR Strip buyer DV01 $1m
- Cash treasury curve is little changed this morning with the 2Y +0.4bp to 4.838%, the 10Y is -0.6bp at 4.398%, while the 2y10y is -0.998 at -44.210
- Across APAC Rates: ACGBs are 2-3bps lower, Australia's Jim Chalmers said he is cautiously confident the government can bring the economy in for a soft landing. NZGBs are unch to 2bps lower, while JGBs are 2-4bps lower.
- Looking ahead, CPI at 0830ET and FOMC policy announcement at 1400ET, Fed Chairman Powell presser at 1430ET.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
ASIA STOCKS: Regional Asian Equities Lower, AU Federal Budget Tomorrow
May-13 2024 05:28
Asian equity markets are mixed today, Taiwan equities are the top performing market led by the semiconductor sector. There isn't much on the data calendar today, earlier we have NZ Food prices which increased from the month prior and Australia's NAB business survey's which show business conditions had fallen from the month prior.
- Japanese equities are little changed today, the real estate sector is the worst performing. There has been little in the way of headlines out of the region, with government officials staying surprising quiet on the currency so far today, the yen continued to slip on Friday and we currently trade little changed on the day at 155.75. The Nikkei 225 is up 4.10% from the lows on Apr 19th but has failed to break back above the 20 & 50-day EMAs and trades down 0.32%, the Topix has performed slightly better over the same period up 5% and holds above all moving averages, however trades down 0.30%
- South Korean equities are lower today, earlier April household spending rose to KRW1,103.6T from KR1098.5t in March. The Kospi continues to comfortably hold above all major moving averages, while the RSI is holding above 50 and MACD indicator is holding steady, signaling buyers still remain in control, the index is down 0.43% today.
- Taiwan equities are the top performers today, flows turned positive again on Friday as investors continue buying up semiconductor stocks. It's a very quiet week on the data front for Taiwan with nothing scheduled. The Taiex opened at new all-time highs this morning, however we trade just off those levels now, up 0.67%.
- Australian equities are lower today, as investors await the federal budget that will be released on Tuesday, while earlier NAB's monthly business survey's showed that conditions eased in April, with trading, profitability and employment all back around their long-term averages. The ASX200 is down 0.18%.
- Elsewhere in SEA, New Zealand equities are down 0.88% with the 1yr inflation expectation falling to 2.73% from 3.22% and the 2yr falling to 2.33% from 2.50%, Indonesian equities have returned from their break and are unchanged for the day, Philippines equities are up 1.21%, Malaysian equities up 0.18% and Indian are down 1%
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
May-13 2024 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 14-May | 0700 | Mar/Apr | Labour Market Survey |
| 14-May | 0830 | BOE's Pill Speech at Chartered Accountants Summit | |
| 15-May | 1505 | Bernanke Review of Bank of England Forecasting | |
| 16-May | 1200 | BOE's Greene Speech at Make UK on Labour Market | |
| 17-May | 0900 | BOE's Mann Speech at Economics Statistics Conference | |
| 20-May | 1000 | BOE's Broadbent Monetary Mechanism Workshop | |
| 21-May | 1100 | May | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 21-May | - | DMO quarterly consultation investors/GEMM consultation | |
| 21-May | 1800 | BOE's Bailey Lecture at LSE | |
| 22-May | 0001 | Apr | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-May | 0700 | Apr | Consumer inflation report/ Producer Prices |
| 22-May | 0700 | Apr | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-May | 1345 | BOE's Breeden Panellist on macroprudential policies | |
| 23-May | 0930 | May | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-May | 0001 | May | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-May | 0700 | Apr | Retail Sales |
| 28-May | 0001 | May | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 28-May | 1100 | May | CBI Distributive Trades |
AUSTRALIA DATA: Sharp Drop In April Consumption Driven By Discretionary Spending
May-13 2024 05:19
CBA’s household spending indicator (HSI) based on digital transactions fell 1% m/m in April to be up 2.6% y/y down from 3.9% y/y but only +1.4% y/y per person. March retail sales fell 0.4% m/m to be up only 0.8% y/y and the April CBA data suggest this is likely to moderate further given the high correlation between the two series (April retail sales due May 28). Consumption is expected to remain soft and then begin to recover in H2 2024 as tax cuts and lower inflation drive an improvement in real incomes.
- Spending increased in non-discretionary sectors such as education, utilities, insurance and health. Food, hospitality and recreation were down sharply as well as transport. The HSI is nominal and so the increase in expenditure also reflects price increases, especially for insurance. Essential spending rose 0.5%m/m to be up 4% y/y whereas discretionary fell sharply by 4.4% m/m to be up 1.8% y/y.
- Goods spending fell 0.8% m/m after -0.8% in March and services fell 1% m/m after rising 1.4%. Services spending continues to outpace goods at 7.7% y/y compared to 2.4% y/y.
- There have been updates to the HSI’s weights, seasonal adjustment factors and some more details including HSI per capita and by home ownership status.
Australia household spending y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/Bloomberg
