UK T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 1/3/6-month UKTBs

The Dáil Éireann (lower house) meets for the first time in 2025 today to formally confirm Fianna Fáil (FF) leader Micheál Martin as Taoiseach (PM). The new gov't is similar in composition to that which governed Ireland from 2020-2024, with the centrist FF governing in coalition with the centre-right Fine Gael (FG). 

• Change comes in the form of the environmentalist Greens being replaced as the smallest party in gov't by a group of independent members (TDs) (the Regional Independent Group of seven TDs and two independent TDs from Kerry).
• Martin's nomination is due to begin at 1100GMT. After a short series of speeches, Martin will be confirmed in a vote. With a gov't majority of nine seats, he is assured to win the Dáil's nomination. After this, he will travel to meet with President Michael D. Higgins to be officially appointed.
• After this, Martin will spend most of the afternoon appointing new ministers before the Dail reconvenes at 1730GMT to approve the incoming cabinet. 

An immediate focus for the new gov't will be US President Donald Trump's efforts to 'onshore' US firms currently based abroad.  As WaPo reports, "U.S. multinationals account for about three-quarters of corporate tax revenue, [...] Without the corporate taxes filling the coffers, Ireland would be running a deficit. As it is, the country recorded a surplus of 21.9 billion euros for 2024."

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis are trading higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 6178.75, the Dec 6 high and key resistance. Initial support to watch is 5961.75, the Jan 16 low.
• A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the contract is trading higher again, today. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 5261.75, 1.236 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing. Initial firm support lies at 5035.87, the 20-day EMA.

OI data points to two distinct groups of positioning swings between Friday and Tuesday settlement, as the SOFR futures strip twist flattened.

• A mix of net long cover and short setting out to SFRH6.
• Short cover then dominated in SFRH7 through SFRU7, as well as in SFRH8.