CONSUMER STAPLES: AB-Inbev: S&P to positive outlook (x2)

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 109-10/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-08 @ 13:41 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16   
• SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

Treasury futures have traded sharply lower today and this has resulted in a break of support at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach of this support highlights a stronger reversal and most likely, the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.

The short-term USD move is sticking well here: the dollar is holding the entirety of the gains vs. EUR, GBP, JPY and others.

• What may be interesting here for USD/JPY is how much further the pair could gain without strong US equities as a tailwind - the e-mini S&P is through to weekly lows, with the 6024.50 low within range of the 6,000.00 psychological handle, as well as the 100-dma of 5994.02 for the H5 future.
• Curiously, today's immediate reaction in the e-mini S&P is almost precisely the inverse of that seen in January: a 70 point drop on today's release vs. a 70 point rally on January 15th.

Unequivocally hawkish market reaction to the firmer-than-expected CPI data.

• The next 25bp Fed rate cut is now not fully discounted until the end of the December FOMC. That move was fully priced through September ahead of the release, with 37bp of cuts showing through December pre-data.
• FFZ5 briefly prints 1.0 tick above its January low.
• SFRZ5 briefly prints 2.5 ticks above its January low.