EM LATAM CREDIT: Additional color on the earlier Ecuador Sacha field headline:
• Since striking an accord in 2024 to hand Ecuador’s Sacha field to Sinopetrol, a consortium of foreign oil companies, Noboa has faced mounting criticism over his handling of the deal. Amid the controversy, the President threatened to cancel the contract unless Sinopetrol pays a $1.5 billion entry bonus by March 11, about a month earlier than agreed, of which this deadline has now passed and the energy ministry will now seek separate options.
• The accelerated deadline has led analysts to speculate that Noboa is deliberately trying to scuttle the deal in an attempt to save his candidacy after edging out Gonzalez in the first round of the presidential vote.
• “The damage has already been done, but he’s limiting his losses” said Sebastian Hurtado, head of political risk consultancy Prófitas in Quito. Former Oil Minister Fernando Santos separately characterized Noboa’s ultimatum as “a pretext to end the negotiations elegantly.”
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EGB SYNDICATION: 15-year BTP mandate
"The Republic of Italy has mandated Barclays Bank Ireland PLC, Deutsche Bank A.G., Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., Morgan Stanley Europe SE and Nomura Financial Products Europe GmbH for a new syndicated 15-year BTP due 1st October 2040. The transaction will be launched in the near future subject to market conditions."
"Therefore, the auctions of BTPs longer than 10 years scheduled for the 13th of February 2025 will not take place."
- This was exactly in line with our expectations. We had flagged a 15-year syndication for this week and we pencil in a size of E8-10bln with the transaction tomorrow.
- We had also expected the cancellation of the 15+ year auction on Thursday.
SECURITY: Russia Restates Hardline Ceasefire Conditions Ahead Of Expected Talks
Reuters reporting that Russian Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Sergei Ryabkov, reiterated that Russia’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine have not changed since Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined a proposal in June last year.
- Ryabkov: “…the sooner the USA and the West understand that all of Putin’s conditions need to be fulfilled the sooner there will be a settlement… As for our dialogue with US on strategic stability, situation does not look promising as Putin said…”
- The comments come as Washington and Moscow maintain ambiguity on an acceptable ceasefire framework, particularly regarding any security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia that could unlock talks.
- US President Donald Trump told the NY Post that he had spoken to Putin on the phone, noting the Russian president wants to see people “stop dying” in Ukraine.
- Putin’s conditions, which include Ukraine withdrawing troops from annexed territories and abandoning long-term NATO aspirations without offering concessions to Kyiv, were rejected by Ukraine and Western allies.
- Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, rejected reporting that he would unveil the Trump administration’s peace proposal at the Feb 14-16 Munich Security Conference.
- Kellogg told the Post Trump is ready to double down on sanctions against Russia, noting that additional pressure could be applied on Russia’s oil production and exports.
- Kellogg added Trump’s approach is more pragmatic than former President Biden’s largely unconditional support for Kyiv, with Trump willing to exert greater leverage over Moscow.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told ITV: "If I had an understanding [America/Europe] will not abandon us… If there are security guarantees, we can then speak of an end to the 'hot phase' of the war.”
EUROPE: German Economy Minister Reiterates Stance on Counter Tariffs
- "GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: EUROPE MUST RESPOND TO TRADE RESTRICTIONS, WE ARE PREPARED FOR THIS" (RTRS)
- Worth noting nothing new on that Habeck headline, after stating last week that if Europe cannot convince President Trump, "then Europe will have to react as Canada and Mexico are prepared to do: with counter-tariffs".
- Perhaps separately, EURUSD has extended its pullback in the last few minutes to 1.0310 from the earlier 1.0337 highs in early European trade, amid a notable bid filtering through for the broader greenback. 1.0272, the Feb 04 low is the immediate support level of note.
