US DATA: ADP Surprisingly Firm After Extensive Annual Revisions

FX Exchange traded Option, very short term play, Weekly Tuesday expiry.

Covers Tomorrow's French, Italy, EU prelim CPIs, US JOLTS, ISM services.

• EURUSD 1.0525c, sold at 0.00045 in 1k.

The German national flash December HICP print came in above expectations at +2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.7% M/M (0.5% cons; -0.7% prior). National flash CPI was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 2.2% prior) and 0.4% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; -0.2% prior). MNI noted some upside risks here after state-level data out this morning.

• Overall it appears that December's release points towards some broad-based acceleration, with all released categories printing higher than before. An uptick in services is especially noteworthy - seasonally adjusted data (out later this afternoon from the Bundesbank) will give some indication on ongoing momentum there.
• Core CPI accelerated to 3.1% Y/Y, its highest rate since March 2024 (3.0% Nov). Of the major sub-categories, services CPI is the most closely watched and came in at 4.1% Y/Y (4.0% prior).
• Goods inflation also accelerated, to 1.1% Y/Y (+0.7% prior), with the increase on the back of both higher energy (-1.7% Y/Y, joint highest since May 2024, and vs -3.7% Nov) and food inflation (+2.0% vs +1.8% Nov).
• Destatis noted that methodological changes related to reclassifications of goods and services ahead of making 2025 the new series base year are "expected to have only a minor impact on the overall result", with the effects for December's data explained in more details in the final report on Jan 16.

SFIU5 95.45/95.75/96.05c fly, bought for 5.75 in 6k.