US DATA: ADP Surprisingly Firm After Extensive Annual Revisions
Feb-05 13:29
- ADP employment was stronger than expected in January at 183k (cons 150k) along with a solidly upward revised 176k (initial 122k) in Dec.
- This upward revision was just a small part of far-ranging revisions, with ADP employment growth now seen to have averaged 200k in Q4 vs a previously thought 151k.
- These upward revisions help reduce what was a particularly large undershoot of private payrolls in December, to -47k from -101k at the time.
- Payrolls data are still of course due to extensive revisions on Friday, but in the latest vintages of data, ADP has had a particularly mixed few months as an indicator for private payrolls, undershooting by -47k in Dec having overshot by 22k in Nov and a huge 212k in Oct.
- From the press release: "We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market. Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production."
- Revisions: “The January 2025 report reflects the scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report. The data series has been reweighted to match annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data through March 2024. In addition, this revision encompasses an improved labeling model, including updated geographical and industry classifications.”
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EUR: FX Exchange traded Option
Jan-06 13:25
FX Exchange traded Option, very short term play, Weekly Tuesday expiry.
Covers Tomorrow's French, Italy, EU prelim CPIs, US JOLTS, ISM services.
- EURUSD 1.0525c, sold at 0.00045 in 1k.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: German Inflation Firmer Than Expected, Appears Broad-Based
Jan-06 13:25
The German national flash December HICP print came in above expectations at +2.9% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.4% prior) and 0.7% M/M (0.5% cons; -0.7% prior). National flash CPI was 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 2.2% prior) and 0.4% M/M (vs 0.3% cons; -0.2% prior). MNI noted some upside risks here after state-level data out this morning.
- Overall it appears that December's release points towards some broad-based acceleration, with all released categories printing higher than before. An uptick in services is especially noteworthy - seasonally adjusted data (out later this afternoon from the Bundesbank) will give some indication on ongoing momentum there.
- Core CPI accelerated to 3.1% Y/Y, its highest rate since March 2024 (3.0% Nov). Of the major sub-categories, services CPI is the most closely watched and came in at 4.1% Y/Y (4.0% prior).
- Goods inflation also accelerated, to 1.1% Y/Y (+0.7% prior), with the increase on the back of both higher energy (-1.7% Y/Y, joint highest since May 2024, and vs -3.7% Nov) and food inflation (+2.0% vs +1.8% Nov).
- Destatis noted that methodological changes related to reclassifications of goods and services ahead of making 2025 the new series base year are "expected to have only a minor impact on the overall result", with the effects for December's data explained in more details in the final report on Jan 16.
SONIA: Call fly buyer
Jan-06 13:17
SFIU5 95.45/95.75/96.05c fly, bought for 5.75 in 6k.
