AMERICAS OIL: Alberta Premier Rejects Oil Export Tax in Meeting Carney: BBG

• The 52-week bill bid-to-cover was the lowest since September 2024 (3.03x); the 26-week saw its lowest since March 2024.
• Another curiosity: the percentage allotted at high was the lowest for years for both the 13-week (8.5%, lowest since Oct 2024 which was 15 auctions ago) and 52-week (6.5%, lowest since Nov 2023 and 2nd lowest since October 2020).
• Meanwhile, for the first time in an auction cycle, Treasury has made the 6-week bill a "benchmark" bill - joining the other major bills (eg 4- and 8-week) with regularly scheduled settlement and maturity cycles.
• Previously it was just technically an ad hoc cash management bill (CMB) - the transition to benchmark status was announced in May 2024. Recall that Treasury made the 4-month bill a benchmark in October 2022.
• Treasury began regular weekly issuance of the 6-week bill coming out of the resolution of the debt limit impasse in June 2023, and it was the only regularly issued CMB.
• The inaugural benchmark sale saw a 2.49x bid/cover on a high yield of 4.27% - the yield was typical of recent 42-day CMB sales but the bid-cover was on the low side (longer-term average has been closer to 3.00x). 

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.8347/78 50-day EMA / High Jan 6 and pivot resistance   
• PRICE: 0.8297 @ 16:09 GMT Feb 18 
• SUP 1: 0.8284/8248 Low Feb 18 / 3 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP traded lower Monday but - for now - remains inside a range. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the bear trigger.    

The top House Democrat super PAC is circulating a memo laying the groundwork for Democrats to hammer Republicans on potential cuts to Medicaid. The success of the campaign may be consequential to the GOP's ability to find sufficient offsets to fund President Trump's tax agenda. 

• The memo states: “While Donald Trump and House Republicans promised to ‘love and cherish’ Medicaid, House Republicans have gone full Matt Bevin, and are planning to make deep cuts to fund $4.5 trillion in tax cuts for Elon Musk and other billionaires,”
• Punchbowl News notes: “Bevin, the former Republican governor of Kentucky, lost reelection to Democrat Andy Beshear in 2019 on the heels of an attempt to overhaul statewide Medicaid benefits. Democrats believe there is a similar opportunity to win seats in deep-red territory by capitalizing on voter anger over GOP entitlement reforms, especially if those funds are used to offset tax cuts.”
• The memo notes: “A clear majority of voters—including Trump voters—oppose House Republicans’ plan to cut Medicaid: “76% of voters have a favorable opinion of Medicaid and 82% see it as an important source of health coverage.
• “78% of Americans disapprove of making major Medicaid cuts, including 67% of Trump voters.
• “66% of voters say they would feel unfavorable about Republicans in Congress if they push for large cuts to Medicaid this year.”

Figure 1: Opinion of Medicare, Trump Voters (Democrat-Affiliated Survey Data)

Source: HART Research