BUNDS: Another busy overnight session

Canadian Prime Minister is set to announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party this week, which would pave the way for his removal as head of government, the Globe and Mail said in a report. The announcement could be made before the emergency national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday and possibly as soon as today.

• Trudeau has been under pressure to quit for the past few months, which intensified after the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, arguably the most influential member of his cabinet.
• For the record, the Globe and Mail report mentions that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision. It is also unclear if Trudeau would stay on in caretaker capacity, in the event he indeed decides to quit.
• The report was corroborated by a subsequent source piece circulated by Reuters, which noted that Trudeau's imminent departure has become increasingly likely.

• A fairly decent overnight session for Bund on the Volume front, and Yields on both sides of the Atlantic are staying elevated, although still short of the December high for the US 10yr.
• The German Bund future has seen a gap lower on the overnight Open, and the big focus will be on the 132.00 support initially.
• The Opening gap is up to 132.50, and a clear break through that area, would open back to 133.10.
• It is a very busy Week ahead, European CPIs, and US Labour Data are due.
• European supply will also be watched, as it is a heavy start for the Year.
• For Today, Services PMIs will be final readings for France, Germany, EU, UK, US. The German CPI, US Factory Orders and final Durables good are the notable data for Today's session.
• SUPPLY: US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Cook.

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance     
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 120.45/120.79 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 119.39 @ Close Jan 3 
• SUP 1: 119.11 Low Nov 18        
• SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support      

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and Friday’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.79, the 20-day EMA.