NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Survey Signals Soft Q1 But Likely Recovery Over 2025

Feb-27 00:57

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ANZ February business confidence improved 4 points to 58.4, while the activity outlook was slightly ...

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AUSTRALIA DATA: NAB Business Surveys, Business Conditions Improve

Jan-28 00:42

Australian business conditions improved in December, rising 3pt to +6, driven by a recovery in retail as consumer spending strengthened and price pressures eased. Retail conditions turned positive for the first time since November 2023, while business confidence edged up 1pt to -2. Services sectors remained the strongest performers, and capacity utilization rose to 82.8%, above its long-term average, indicating robust demand.
The report highlights softer wage pressures, with labor cost growth at 1.4%, ahead of key quarterly inflation data that may prompt the RBA to consider rate cuts.
Focus will now turn to tomorrow's 4Q CPI, which is expected to show a drop to 2.5% from 2.8% y/y prior. RBA-date OIS is pricing in a 80% chance of a 25bps cut at the Feb meeting, firming 2bps this morning.

AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Jun-54 Auction Goes Smoothly With More Demand

Jan-28 00:16

Today's result has continued the trend of firm pricing for ACGB auctions, as the weighted average yield printed 0.28bps through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker). The cover ratio was 3.6500x versus 2.8233x previously.

An outright yield which was around 35bps higher than the previous auction appears to have contributed to today’s bidding even though it was still 35bps lower than the November 2023 high.
It is also important to acknowledge that improved sentiment towards longer-dated global bonds over the past month might have assisted the bid.
The ACGB Jun-54 cash trade is slightly cheaper in post-auction dealings.

AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Jun-54 Auction Results

Jan-28 00:09

The AOFM sells A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond, #TB169:

Average Yield (%): 4.9405 (prev. 4.5951)
High Yield (%): 4.945 (prev. 4.5975)
Bid/Cover: 3.6500x (prev. 2.8233x)
Allotted at Highest Accepted Yield as % of Bid at that Yield (%): 23.5 (prev. 70.1)
Bidders: 58 (prev. 43), 22 successful (prev. 19), 15 allocated in full (prev. 11)

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