MEXICO: "Bank of Mexico Keeps 2026 Economic Growth Forecast at 1.8%" - BBG

• Crude has lost ground today amid news that Trump will stop short of imposing tariffs immediately upon taking office, coupled with the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire have added pressure.
• WTI Feb 25 fell by 1.7% to $76.6/bbl.
• In his inauguration address, President Trump said that the US will fill its strategic reserves again and export American energy all over the world.
• The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, with attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open $80.63, a Fibonacci projection.
• On the downside, a further decline would expose the 20-day EMA, at $74.80, a key short-term support.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.2% to $2,709/oz, with the yellow metal trading in a tight range through much of the session.
• Gold continues to hold on to its recent gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. Eyes remain on $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance.
• On the downside, initial support is at $2,653.4, the 50-day EMA.
• In contrast, copper has fallen by 1.2% to $432/lb today, leaving the red metal 3.5% below Friday’s high.
• Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, despite the latest pullback. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA and last week’s gains resulted in a move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opening $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high. 

A new survey from the New York Times and Ipsos has found that many Americans who otherwise disapprove of Trump, “share his bleak assessment of the country’s problems and support some of his most contentious prescriptions to fix them.” The report suggests that Americans are more aligned with Trump ahead of his second term than they were during his first term. 

• The Times notes: “A little more than half of the country expresses some desire to see Mr. Trump follow through with his harshest threat to deal with illegal immigration: deporting everyone living in the United States without authorization.
• “Americans are more evenly split on whether Mr. Trump should implement tariffs on countries like China and Mexico, which he has vowed to do as a way to reduce reliance on foreign goods. Still, 46 percent say that trade with foreign nations should be subject to increased tariffs."
• The Times adds: “For a political figure so divisive — Americans view him more negatively than any other president about to take office in the last 70 years — the level of support for his ideas is striking.” 

Figure 1: Support for Trump Policies, "how likely do you think it is that Trump will try to do each of the following over the next four years?"

Source: New York Times

Despite President Trump's criticism of the EV market and plans to abolish the $7,500 consumer tax credit for EVs, the US EV market may thrive during his term due to the Inflation Reduction Act, corporate tax breaks, support for Tesla owner Elon Musk, and an oil boom, Argus said.

• Argus said that boosting the US’ EV market could be the best way to keep a Republican in the White House in 2028.
• The Inflation Reduction Act, passed under Biden, has become a catalyst for EV investment, particularly in key swing states and Republican districts.
• Nearly 60% of announced projects under the Inflation Reduction Act are in Republican districts, representing 85% of investment and 68% of jobs.
• Major investments include Toyota's $13.9bn plant in North Carolina. Other swing states like Michigan, Georgia, and Texas have multiple supported projects.
• The new Trump administration faces contradictions between Musk's EV interests and Trump's "drill baby drill" policy.
• Meanwhile, oil majors ExxonMobil and Saudi Aramco are investing in lithium extraction, potentially benefiting from Trump's tax cuts and oil licence bonanza, leading to a greener America.