CONSUMER STAPLES: Barry Callebaut; dispute with local exporters

• The EUR and the Pound are falling back to where they fell Overnight post Trump's Tariffs headline, both EURUSD and Cable are back to their overnight intraday lows.
• Not Yet seeing any broader moves versus G10s at least.
• Small support in Cable comes at 1.2222, and a push all the way down to ~1.2186 would reverse Yesterday's WSJ story on Tariffs.
• EURUSD would need to drift to 1.0320 to reverse that move.

• EUR Benchmark 5Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2030) MS+70 Area
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• EUR Benchmark 15Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2040) MS+145 Area
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• Issuer: Lithuania Government International Bond (LITHUN)
• Settlement: Jan. 28, 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), BofA, JPM
• Co-Lead (no books): SEB Lithuania
• Investor presentation.
• Timing: May price today.

Details as per Bloomberg

• Yesterday's FX derivatives volumes were seriously impressive considering the US market holiday, with over $110bln notional crossing the DTCC thanks to the USD sell-off, with tariff target currencies (namely EUR, CAD and CNY) leading the way.
• While relief was evident in the spot rally for EUR, CAD and others - short-end vol markets have not followed, with USD risk reversals and butterfly vol holding at much more cautious levels, somewhat vindicated by the follow-up from Trump overnight and his warning of 25% tariffs on USMCA nations to combat migration flow.
• As such, while USD/CAD sold off on the initial memo headlines yesterday, net upside demand via options is still evident, tipping the put/call skew toward calls. Over $4bln notional has traded in calls with strikes at 1.45 or above, positions which will have benefited from the bounce off the 1.4262 low yesterday.
• This raises the risks around Canadian politics, and increases the importance of Trudeau's succession, with tariff strategy comments on the candidates' campaign trail likely market movers.