PERU: BCRP Interest Rate Decision Due At 2300GMT/1900ET

Several contacts cited prominent headlines that Ukraine was contemplating swapping territory with Russia as part of a peace deal for USD selling in the last half hour of trade. MNI is not seeing any substantive headline driver (BBDXY falls 0.2% to 1298.78 low, bounces to 1300.35 last), which also sees Tsys bounce mildly while Equities inch higher.

• The coincident AFP headline that potentially triggered the strength in the Euro and Euro equity futures starting at 14:28ET - " Ukraine prepared to offer territory swap with Russia: Zelensky" - is actually a rehash of a Guardian interview with Zelensky that happened hours earlier.
• It's plausible the resurfacing of this news triggered algorithmic trading - the move has largely reversed. Otherwise we don't have much of an explanation from a headline perspective.

• RES 4: 162.70 High Jan 28 
• RES 3: 161.40 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 160.50 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 157.97/158.86 Low Feb 3 / High Feb 6
• PRICE: 157.62 @ 16:14 GMT Feb 11  
• SUP 1: 155.61 Low Feb 10 
• SUP 2: 155.19/15 3.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Sep 16 ‘24
• SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23  

Prices are off lows, but a bear cycle in EURJPY remains present and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. The cross cleared 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, and pierced 156.18, the Dec 3 low and key support. A continuation lower would open 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.40, the 50-day EMA. The short-term trend is oversold, gains would allow this condition to unwind. 

• -25,000 TYH5 109 puts, 28 recently, paper had bought 20,000 yesterday at 18-20