EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 166.51 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 164.02 High Jan 6
• PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 6 
• SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY traded higher Monday but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish S/T condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. Monday’s gains are a positive development, a resumption of the uptrend would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.

Corporate issuance rises to the largest single day on record with $48.8B so far with Saudi Arabia and World Bank details yet to be announced.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/06 $8.5B #Mexico $2B 5Y +170, $4B 12Y +230, $2.5B 30Y +255
• 01/06 $3B #Broadcom $1.1B +3Y +53, $800M +5Y +63, $1.1B +7Y +70
• 01/06 $3B #CRH SMW Finance $1.25B 5Y +75, $1.25B 10Y +90, $500M 30Y +105
• 01/06 $2.75B #NAB $750M 5Y +50, $750M 5Y SOFR+79, $1.25B 11NC10 +130
• 01/06 $2.75B #National Australia Bank (NAB) $750M 5Y +50, $750M 5Y SOFR+79, $1.25B 11NC10 +130
• 01/06 $2.6B #Toyota Motor Cr $650M 2Y +35, $400M 2Y SOFR+47, $700M 5Y +58, $850M 10Y +75
• 01/06 $2.5B #Societe Generale $1B 4.25NC3.25 +120, $500M 4.25NC3.25 SOFR+141, $1B 8.25NC7.25 +160
• 01/06 $2.3B #CIBC $1B 3NC2 +60, $400M 3NC2 SOFR+72, $900M 6NC5 +83
• 01/06 $2.25B #MUFG $1.1B 6NC5 +78, $1.15B 11NC10 +95
• 01/06 $2.25B #BNP Paribas 8NC7 +127
• 01/06 $2B #Hyundai Cap Am $850M 3Y +75, $350M 3Y SOFR+92, $800M 5Y +93
• 01/06 $1.9B #EDF $700M 10Y +120, $800M 30Y +155, $400M 2064 Tap +170
• 01/06 $1.75B #JBS $1B 10Y +135, $750M 30Y +162.5
• 01/06 $1.5B #Southern Cal Edison $850M 10Y +85, $650M 30Y +108
• 01/06 $1.5B #AerCap Aviation $750M 3Y +75, $750M 7Y +98
• 01/06 $1.5B #Williams Cos $1B 10Y +100, $500M 30Y +120
• 01/06 $1.25B #Caterpillar $450M 2Y +25, $350M 2Y SOFR+38, $450M 5Y +42
• 01/06 $1.25B #UBS 3NC2 +60
• 01/06 $1.2B #Jackson National Life $700M 2Y +65, $500M 5Y +95
• 01/06 $1B #India Export-Import Bank 10Y +100
• 01/06 $900M #John Deere Capital 00M $2Y +25, $500M 3Y +35
• 01/06 $800M #Corebridge Funding $500M 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR+75
• 01/06 $750M #Sixth Street Lending 5Y +185
• 01/06 $600M #RGA Global Funding 5Y +85
• 01/06 $500M #Lincoln Financial 5Y +88
• 01/06 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +85, 6Y +100, 10Y +110
• 01/06 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+78a
• 01/06 $Benchmark Kexim investor calls
• 01/06 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +57a

• WTI is on track for losses today, ending a recent rally. The market is still weighing up sluggish Chinese demand and the eventual return of OPEC barrels against a weaker USD.
• WTI Feb 25 is down by 0.5% at $73.6/bbl.
• Last week’s rally in WTI futures has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at $70.78, the 20-day EMA.
• By contrast, silver has risen by 1.1% today to $30.0/oz, bringing the gold silver ratio down to its lowest since Dec19.
• A bear cycle in silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low, opening $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
• Meanwhile, copper has rallied by 1.9% to $415/lb, with the red metal buoyed by reports that Trump could pare back his trade tariff policy, which he later denied.
• A bearish trend condition in copper futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective.
• The cycle low late December confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has paved the way for an extension towards $400.00 and $388.86, a Fibonacci projection.
• Initial firm resistance is $420.05, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance to watch is at $433.50, the Nov 12 high.