STIR: BoE Pricing Sticky Around 60bp Of Cuts For '25
GBP STIRs continue to price around ~60bp of BoE cuts through ’25, with the next 25bp cut ~80% discounted through March and more than fully discounted through May. We still look for cuts at the February and May meetings.
- SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
- Thursday’s BoE DMP survey presents the highlight of next week’s UK release schedule.
- Elsewhere, the latest S&P-KPMG-REC report on jobs (also due Thursday) will be eyed, with particular focus on hiring plans and the outlook for wages.
- BoE MPC member Breeden is also due to speak on Thursday.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.534 | -16.6 |
Mar-25 | 4.495 | -20.5 |
May-25 | 4.373 | -32.7 |
Jun-25 | 4.329 | -37.1 |
Aug-25 | 4.229 | -47.1 |
Sep-25 | 4.199 | -50.1 |
Nov-25 | 4.135 | -56.5 |
Dec-25 | 4.090 | -61.0 |
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AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6591/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6523/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6414 @ 14:26 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: 0.6399 Intraday low
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6523, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls, set for new record highs
Attention turns to the US Cash open, the SPX and the NDX should be set to gap higher to print a new record all time high.
- Calls: SPX: 6,073.9 (+0.4%); DJIA: 44,925 (+0.5%/+219pts); NDX: 21,402.1 (+0.8%)
EQUITIES: New record highs in US Futures
- US Emini and Nasdaq (NQZ4) futures are still making record high, so Cash market will be set to gap higher on the open in under 15 minutes.
- ESZ4 is starting to push into overbought territory, NQZ4 is still a little short, focus will be on the price during the Cash open.
