UK DATA: Brightmine Median Pay Awards At Lowest Level Since 2021 For Third Month

• MNI JAPAN Q4 REAL GDP +0.7% Q/Q; MNI MEDIAN +0.3%
• JAPAN Q4 REAL GDP 2.8% ANNUALIZED; MNI MEDIAN +0.9%
• JAPAN Q4 CONSUMPTION +0.1% Q/Q; +0.1 PP CONTRIBUTION
• JAPAN Q4 CAPEX +0.5% Q/Q; +0.1 PP CONTRIBUTION

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 139.69 @ 16:21 GMT Feb 14
• SUP 1: 139.46 - Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures firmed further, with the latest fresh cycle lows reinforcing the condition. Note too that MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The 140.00 psychological handle has been pierced. Markets have shown through 139.38, a Fibonacci projection. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. Gains would be considered corrective. 

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed slightly weaker, -5 compared to settlement levels, despite a strong end to last week from US tsys.

• 2- and 10-year US tsys finished 5-6bps richer after a large miss in January retail sales (-0.9% M/M vs 0.7% prior, -0.2% consensus). It represented the biggest sequential drop in 22 months.
• A similarly weak "control group" figure led to a 0.5pp downgrade to the Atlanta Fed's GDP nowcast (to 2.3% GDP growth in Q1, i.e. no acceleration from Q4).
• This week’s US data schedule is relatively light, due in part to today's Presidents Day holiday (SIFMA recommends bond cash close, equities closed), with initial jobless claims, February prelim PMIs, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys among the highlights. Supply includes 20Y Bond and 30Y TIPS auctions.
• Today, the local calendar will see Q4 GDP (P) and December IP (F). The market expects a 0.3% q/q reading for GDP, unchanged from Q3 last year. Business spending is expected to rebound, but consumer spending is forecast to dip.