GBPUSD TECHS: Builds on Recent Gains
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.2809 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2679 High Feb 19 & 21
- PRICE: 1.2631 @ 15:44 GMT Feb 21
- SUP 1: 1.2490 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is building well on recent gains. The recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has given way. A continuation higher would strengthen current conditions and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Key short-term support is 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
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US STOCKS: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $123.981B this afternoon from yesterday's $96.015B. Compares to Thursday Jan 16 low of $94.489B, the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties remains steady at 44.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review: $13B 20Y Bond Auction Re-Open Trades Through
Tsy futures bounce off lows (TYH5 trading 108-17, -6.5), after decent $13B 20Y bond auction re-open (912810UF3) breaks two-consecutive tails, trading 1bp through: 4.900% high yield vs. 4.910% WI; 2.750x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.50x.
- Indirect take-up rises to 69.52% vs. 62.00% last month; direct bidder take-up 20.08% vs. 20.1% prior; primary dealer take-up falls to 10.40% vs. 17.90% prior.
- The next 20Y auction is tentatively scheduled for February 19.
FOREX: Higher Core Yields/Equities Weighs on JPY, Supportive of EMFX Recovery
- Major equity indices have continued their impressive advance on Wednesday, consistently weighing on the Japanese Yen throughout the US session. This has allowed USDJPY to outperform, rising around 0.75% to 156.65 as we approach the APAC crossover. Higher core yields have also been supportive of this price dynamic, while a 4bp move for 5-year treasury yields also provided support to the broader dollar index.
- USDJPY move extends the rally from Tuesday’s lows to around 1% ahead of Friday’s BOJ meeting, where a hike is broadly expected, especially due to no market turbulence in the aftermath of Trump’s inauguration. Support to watch is 155.00, the 50-day EMA, and 154.48, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger remain at 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
- Elsewhere, initial price action saw the Euro extend its most recent strength, pushing to a new 2025 high of 1.0457 against the greenback. The rally was met with firm resistance at the 50-day EMA and the pair has subsequently drifted lower, back to 1.0415.
- Broader risk optimism has been particularly supportive of the emerging market FX basket, highlighted by a significant rally for the Brazilian Real. After breaking the psychological 6.00 mark, USDBRL picked up momentum through the 50-day EMA, extending session lows below 5.92 ahead of the close. All LatAm peers have also trade in a bullish manner.
- Additionally, EURPLN (-0.65%) looks set to close below the key 4.25 handle for the first time since the early onset of the pandemic, with the zloty buoyed by recent hawkish communication from the NBP.
- Canada retail sales and US jobless claims headlines the docket on Thursday, however, the focus may be on any commentary from political leader at the WEF in Davos.
