AMERICAS OIL: California Gasoline Screaming Higher: OPIS

• RES 4: 166.54 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 164.55 High Jan 7
• PRICE: 163.37 @ 20:20 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 162.55/160.91 20-day EMA / Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY has traded higher this week but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish short-term condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.55 High Jan 8  
• PRICE: 158.04 @ 06:55 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 156.24 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19  
• SUP 3: 154.16 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

USDJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading at its recent highs. This week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current bullish conditions. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.24, the 20-day EMA.

SOFR & Treasury option flow looked mixed on net as low delta call interest emerged after better put volumes earlier after underlying futures extended lows/breached technical support (TYH5 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield 4.7280% high) following headlines Trump admin considering new tariff emergency declaration. Dovish comments from Fed Gov Waller tempered the sell-off while curves bounced as short end rates outperformed. In turn, projected rate cuts through mid-2025 firmed off morning lows* as follows: Jan'25 at -1.2bp, Mar'25 -10.2bp (-9.3bp), May'25 -15.4bp (-14.7bp), Jun'25 -24.1bp (-22.8bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +5,000 SFRH5 96.25 calls 1.5 ref 95.80
  • +10,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.25 call spds 6.0 ref 95.93
  • +4,00 SFRM5 96.00/96.12 call spds 3.5 ref 95.925
  • +16,000 SFRU5 95.87 put vs. -8,000 2QU5/3QU5 95.87 put strip, 34.5-35 net
  • -3,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 96.50/97.00 call spd spd 2.75 net
  • +10,000 SFRH5 95.81 puts 8.5 ref 95.805
  • +5,000 0QM5 95.50/95.62 put spds 3.5 vs. 95.99/0.06%
  • Block, 5,000 SFRU5 95.62 puts, 10.0 ref 95.99
  • 2,500 3QG5 95.75 puts ref 95.835
  • 10,000 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors ref 95.90
  • 2,000 2QH5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys ref 95.92
  • 5,000 SFRM5 96.25 calls ref 95.905
  • 5,000 SFRZ5 96.00/96.12/96.18/96.31 call condors ref 96.00
  • 4,650 2QH5 96.18/96.31/96.37 broken call flys ref 95.93
  • 1,750 0QM5 96.50/96.87/97.12 broken call flys ref 95.99
  • 2,000 SFRH5 95.00/95.75 put spds ref 95.79
• Treasury Options:
  • 1,500 FVH5 105.25/105.5 2x1 call over combo, 16 net
  • 1,520 FVH5 105/105.5/106 put trees ref 106-00.5
  • 3,000 FVH5105.75/106.25 strangles vs. 6,000 FVG5 105.75/106.25 strangles
  • over 3,100 TYH5 107.5/108 put spds 18 ref 107-31
  • 3,000 USH5 107 puts, 27 ref 111-22
  • over 30,700 TYG5 107 puts, 17 last ref 108-04.5
  • 5,000 TYG5 109/110 call spds vs. 107.5 puts
  • Block, -10,000 TYH5 106.5/107.5 2x1 put spds, 5 net 2-legs over ref 108-06