TURKEY: CBRT Reportedly Cuts Ratio of Exporters' FX Payments to 25% from 30%

SPX: 6,066.9 (-0.0%); DJIA: 44,851 (+0.0%/+0pts); NDX: 21,522.5 (+0.3%).

• The BoC decision comes at 0945ET, with 23bp of cuts priced and a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts to 3.00%.
• As is now customary, the decision and press conference opening statements will be published at 0945ET along with the quarterly MPR (watched for tariff scenarios) before the presser itself starts 1030ET.
• USDCAD has hit session highs of 1.4472 (latest 1.4459) ahead of the BoC decision at 0945ET, although CAD still modestly outperforms AUD, NOK and NZD on the day.
• Key directional triggers remain resistance at 1.4516 (Jan 21 high) and support at 1.4261 (Jan 20 low).
• CORRA futures point to a terminal rate of ~2.7%, near the mid-point of the previously estimated neutral range of 2.25-3.25%.
• As shown in our preview, the median analyst we reviewed looks for a 2.50% terminal in a close call with 2.25%.
• The Can-US 2YY differential of -139bp would currently mark a fresh low for a close since the late 1990s.
• Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/BOC_Preview_Jan2025_f128d669a0.pdf

• +15,000 TYH5 110.5 calls, 16-17 ref 109-05 to -06