MEXICO: Commerzbank Expects Banxico To Increase Easing Pace

• Following a consolidatory period ahead of the data, the greenback has firmed on the back of the US data, where JOLTS job openings have beaten consensus. Additionally, ISM services index rose above expectations and the price paid figure rose to 64.4, significantly ahead of the 57.5 estimate.
• US 10 year yields are rising to levels just below 4.7%, approaching the 2024 highs and accordingly USDJPY has seen a solid 50pip rally post the data. We are now approaching the overnight highs of 158.42, as markets become wary of spot re-entering the potential intervention zone. We noted finance minister comments overnight as helping to curtail the pressure on the yen.
• EURUSD is close to pullback lows following the tariff report on Monday and 1.0335 is the most notable area of interest, the old November low. GBPUSD follows suit and slips back below 1.25 having broadly respected its initial resistance at the 20-day EMA.

The JOLTS report saw surprisingly elevated job openings in November but the quits rate reversed a surprise increase from back in October.  

• Job openings 8090k (cons 7740k) in Nov after an upward revised 7,839k (initial 7,744k) in Oct.
• The ratio to unemployed 1.13 after an upward revised 1.12 (initial 1.11). It edges to what’s technically a fresh high since June, off a low of 1.08 in Jul and Sep, but has more broadly stabilized at 1.1 since July. These are levels last seen in mid-2021.
• It clearly remains low by recent standards having averaged 1.21 in Q2 for close to the 1.19 seen in 2019 although is still elevated compared to earlier pre-pandemic years such as the 1.00 averaged in 2017-18.
• The quits rate dropped back to 1.92% after a slightly downward revised 2.06% in Oct (initial 2.09).
• It’s an important reversal after October surprisingly saw its first monthly increase on a rounded basis since May 2023.
• It pokes through the 1.95 in Sep for its lowest since Jun 2020. 2019 av 2.33, 2017-18 av 2.20.

Delivering a press statement a short time ago, leader of the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) Herbert Kickl confirmed that he has accepted the mandate to seek to form a governing coalition, and has invited the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) to begin talks. 

• Kickl said that refusing the mandate and ushering in snap elections would be the "obvious choice", referring to the widening of the FPÖ's lead over other parties in opinion polling since the September 2024 election. However, he claimed "That would have been the approach that puts the 'I' at the centre. But I have decided in favour of political responsibility and the 'we',"
• He does definitively rule out a fresh vote, though, saying during talks he wants "no tricks, no sabotage, but a policy for real change...stability [and] consistent partners". If these cannot be guaranteed then he can imagine snap elections.
• Kickl now proposes negotiations with the ÖVP to the FPÖ praesidium. Once approval is granted, Kickl reaches out to new ÖVP chair Christian Stocker (despite acknowledging the pair's "interesting past" in his statement) to start initial talks intended to lay the groundwork for full coalition negotiations.
• Even if a coalition agreement is eventually possible it is unlikely to arrive swiftly. As such, an interim chancellor to replace Karl Nehammer will be sworn in on 10 Jan. This individual must either be part of the caretaker gov't or be a senior official from the chancellery.