US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core PCE Seen Much Lower Than CPI; PPI Eyed For Confirmation
Feb-13 13:21
Reminder that the January PPI report (0830ET) will mainly be eyed for core PCE implications (as Chair Powell suggested yesterday after the upside CPI surprise).
- The main PPI aggregates are expected to accelerate: overall M//M to 0.3% (0.2% prior), with ex-food/energy/trade seen up to 0.3% from 0.0% prior. As with CPI yesterday, we get revisions: Relative Importance and Seasonal Adjustment Factors are due (we haven't seen any expectations on the implications but obviously they could offer a different take on core PPI momentum last year which showed a strong start and a soft finish to 2024).
- As for PCE implications, below are the post-CPI expectations for core PCE - rough consensus is somewhere in the mid-0.30% area, though post-CPI estimates vary widely. A figure in that area would mean a lower figure than January 2024's 0.498% M/M, and a softer Y/Y reading of 2.6% or 2.7% vs 2.8% in December. And of course it would be much softer than the 0.45% M/M core CPI rise.
- JPMorgan: 0.27%
- Citi: 0.33% vs 0.31% pre-CPI
- Goldman: 0.35% vs 0.32% pre-CPI
- Nomura: 0.351% vs 0.28% pre-CPI
- TD Securities: 0.38%
- HSBC: "close call" between 0.3% and 0.4%
- Mizuho: 0.3-0.4% range (they are expecting 0.4% M/M core PPI and 0.5% headline)
- Prominent PCE-related categories that use the PPI reading include airfares which decelerated in the CPI report (1.2% M/M in Jan from 3.0% prior), auto insurance which accelerated in CPI (2.0% from 0.5%), and (some) healthcare services which decelerated in CPI to 0.0% from 0.2%. There's no equivalent to PPI / PCE portfolio services in CPI.
- In terms of expectations for the PCE-relevant inputs from the PPI report, Nomura look for higher portfolio management and health insurance (noting positive residual seasonality in January), with a decline in PPI physician services prices offset by an increase in hospital services.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - First Trump Cabinet Nominee Faces Senate Scrutiny
Jan-14 13:14
- The first of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominations will face Senate scrutiny today. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth will receive a grilling from Senate Armed Services Committee Democrats on misconduct allegations, and his lack of managerial experience, but is expected to pass Senate confirmation.
- The House Ways and Means Committee will gavel in today for a hearing on the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts.
- President Biden defended his legacy in his final foreign policy speech of his presidency, arguing that he oversaw the rehabilitation of US multilateralism and enacted policies that will bolster the US’ global standing in the years to come.
- Trump’s team are discussing a gradual approach to tariffs, according to a Bloomberg report.
- A new Conference Board survey found that 71% of US CEOs are planning to modify their supply chains to offset the disruption of tariffs.
- Biden announced yesterday his administration will forgive the student loans of 150,000 more borrowers.
- Cutting edge 'made in America' chips from TSMC's Arizona plant could hit the market as soon as this quarter.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters this morning that Russia will “study” Trump’s peace initiatives on Ukraine, “when he takes office."
- Israel and Hamas appear on the verge of a ceasefire-for-hostage deal that will lay the foundations for an armistice in Gaza.
- Chart of the Day: Americans offered a negative assessment of progress made under Biden's presidency.
Full article: US Daily Brief
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Roundup, Upsized $2.5B CADES Launched
Jan-14 13:09
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/14 $2.5B #CADES 5Y SOFR+68, upsized from $2B
- 01/14 $3B KFW +5Y +40
- 01/14 $2B IFC 3Y SOFR+29
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+45
- 01/14 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+48
- 01/14 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+82
- 01/13 $Benchmark Hyundai 3Y +100a
- $14.65B Priced Monday
- 01/13 $2.5B *Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B *Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.75B *Rabobank $700M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+60, $750M 8NC7 +100
- 01/13 $1.5B *CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1.2B *Eastern Energy Gas $700M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +125
- 01/13 $1B *Micron 10Y +102
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B *Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $800M KHFC $500M 5Y +63, $300M 5Y SOFR+90
- 01/13 $750M *Ares Strategic 7Y +175
- 01/13 $650M *Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +185
- 01/13 $500M *Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +185
USD: BofA Note Upside Risks For USD In Near-Term, More Cautious Further Into '25
Jan-14 13:08
Bank of America note that “the USD has picked up in 2025 where 2024 left off - rallying on the dual themes of uncertainty over tariffs and the potential data-induced end to the Fed's cutting cycle.”
- “We expect the Fed is most likely done, which for now remains USD supportive, but what next? If (limited) history is any guide, past "mid-cycle adjustments" have tended to be USD positive, but none occurred at such lofty USD valuations.”
- “Talk of Fed hikes is likely to come but still feels premature to us.”
- “Meanwhile, the USD's support comes despite the opposite move in rate differentials. A possible warning sign? As we have been noting, positioning is crowded and FX sentiment is increasingly consensus, exposing asymmetric risks. “
- They continue to see “near-term USD upside risks but maintain the view that the USD will moderate around mid-year once U.S. economic policy choices become clearer.”
