REAL ESTATE: Correction: Alstria AOXGR books 1.15bn

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/11 $Benchmark Israel 5Y +150a, 10Y +165a
• 02/11 $700M Snap Inc 8NC3 7%a
• $9B Priced Monday
  • 02/10 $6.5B *Eli Lilly $1B 3Y +27, $1.25B 5Y +42, $1B 7Y +50, $1.25B 10Y +60, $1.25B 30Y +80, $750M 40Y +90
  • 02/10 $2B *Union Pacific $1B 10Y +65, $1B 30Y +88
  • 02/10 $500M *Textron 10Y +102

• USDCHF is rising for the fourth consecutive trading session on Tuesday, having extended its firm recovery from 50-day EMA support last week. This average continues to provide significant support for the pair, with the pair unable to close back below since prior to the US election despite multiple attempts in recent weeks. It currently intersects at 0.9017 and remains the key short-term technical parameter.
• The volatility of the Japanese yen remains a focus for G10 currency markets, evidenced by the intra-day ranges that continue to push 1% on a frequent basis. However, with a developing hawkish BOJ narrative bolstering recent Yen gains, USDCHF could provide a cleaner expression of any renewed greenback strength in coming sessions.
• Bolstering this point, we have both US and Swiss inflation data across Wednesday/Thursday which should keep the market’s attention on USDCHF relatively high this week. A confirmation of the diverging central bank stances would place the focus back on the most recent highs around 0.9200, coinciding with strong trendline resistance drawn across the 2023 and 2024 highs. Above here, 0.9244 remains the key medium-term target for the rally.
• Interestingly, straddle pricing for a Thursday expiry is showing very little additional premium for these event risks, leaving markets to break-even on a ~50 pip move. This perhaps bolsters the case that 0.9200 could cap any bullish short-term extension this week, subject to broader tariff related developments.

France ILO Unemployment Rate for Q4 2024 was two-tenths lower than expected at 7.3% (vs 7.5% consensus, 7.4% prior).

• Whilst this may sound like good news, both the employment rate and economic activity rate were disappointing. The economic activity rate fell 0.3pps to 74.4% in Q4 2024 from 74.7% in Q3 - the lowest reading since Q4-2023. The decline was driven by the 15-24 year old activity rate falling from 43.0% to 41.5%, whilst there was a two-tenth decline to 88.6% for the prime 25-49 cohort and an unchanged rate for the 50-64 age group.
• The employment rate also declined to 68.9% from 69.1% in Q3 2024 - the lowest print since Q1-2024. This contrasts with the EC's Expected Employment Indicator for France which averaged 95.3 in Q4 up from 94.7 in Q3 2024, though below the 2024 average of 97.1.
• In terms of age groups, the lower than expected unemployment rate was driven by 15-24 year old's rate falling to 19.0% in Q4 from 19.8% in Q3, while the rate for 25-49 and over 49 year old's remained broadly stable.
• The long-term unemployment rate remained at 1.7% of the active population in Q4.