MALAYSIA: Country Wrap: Exports Miss Whilst Surplus Rebounds in February

• Guangdong province beat Shanghai this year to once more become the leading contributor to China’s personal income tax revenue, according to data compiled by Yicai. Guangdong earned CNY95 billion (USD13.1 billion) in individual income tax revenue in 2024, up 0.4 percent from the previous year. Shanghai, which ranked first last year, collected CNY94.6 billion, down 0.7 percent in the period. (source: Yicai)
• Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, on Monday urged efforts to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the country's private sector.   Xi made the remarks when attending a symposium on private enterprises, where he delivered an important speech after listening to representatives of private entrepreneurs.  The private sector enjoys broad prospects and great potential on the new journey in the new era. It is a prime time for private enterprises and entrepreneurs to give full play to their capabilities, Xi said. (source: Xinhua)
• With the Hang Seng leading the way, optimism is abounding in China’s key indices with the Hang Seng up +1.90%, CSI 300 +0.29%, Shanghai +0.12% and Shenzhen going the opposite way -0.34%.
• CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1697 Per USD; Estimate 7.2570
• Bonds: A weak day in China bonds with the CGB10yr at 1.72% (+3.5bps)

• Following the hawkish cut from the RBA, the AUD/NZD is testing recent highs, we have made session highs of 1.1141 vs last weeks ytd highs of 1.1149, a break here would open a move to Nov highs of 1.1180.
• The AU-NZ 2yr swap has jumped 8bps to 44bps.

JGB futures are sharply weaker and at session lows, -28 compared to settlement levels.

• “The Bank of Japan should continue raising interest rates if data allows to maintain room for policy adjustments later, according to former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso” (per BBG)
• The market remained steady through to the lunch break but dropped sharply after today’s 20-year auction revealed weak demand across key metrics.
• First, the auction low price fell well short of dealer forecasts. Secondly, the cover ratio declined to 3.06x from 3.79x in the previous auction. Lastly, the auction tail widened significantly to 0.55 from 0.04, signalling a notable deterioration in demand.
• Cash US tsys flat to 4bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session, with a steepening bias following yesterday’s holiday, intensifying the sell-off at the long end of the JGB curve.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 5bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the benchmark 20-year leading the way.
• Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher, with swap spreads mixed.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance, Core machine Orders and Tokyo Condominiums for Sale data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs.