EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rose on Strong Trading Interest

France ILO Unemployment Rate for Q4 2024 was two-tenths lower than expected at 7.3% (vs 7.5% consensus, 7.4% prior).

• Whilst this may sound like good news, both the employment rate and economic activity rate were disappointing. The economic activity rate fell 0.3pps to 74.4% in Q4 2024 from 74.7% in Q3 - the lowest reading since Q4-2023. The decline was driven by the 15-24 year old activity rate falling from 43.0% to 41.5%, whilst there was a two-tenth decline to 88.6% for the prime 25-49 cohort and an unchanged rate for the 50-64 age group.
• The employment rate also declined to 68.9% from 69.1% in Q3 2024 - the lowest print since Q1-2024. This contrasts with the EC's Expected Employment Indicator for France which averaged 95.3 in Q4 up from 94.7 in Q3 2024, though below the 2024 average of 97.1.
• In terms of age groups, the lower than expected unemployment rate was driven by 15-24 year old's rate falling to 19.0% in Q4 from 19.8% in Q3, while the rate for 25-49 and over 49 year old's remained broadly stable.
• The long-term unemployment rate remained at 1.7% of the active population in Q4.

You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.

Details below:

• TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision'
• DATE: Wednesday 12 February
• TIME: 10 am to 11:15 am London time / 11 am to 12:15 pm Frankfurt time
• This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar

To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration

• Pressure on core fixed income and the associated higher yields on Tuesday are supporting the latest recovery for Cross/JPY, as USDJPY rises to a fresh session high of 152.38. Price action narrows the gap to Monday’s peak, which comes in at 152.54.
• Plenty of room for USDJPY to correct further to the topside, given the powerful move lower last week and additional profit taking dynamics potentially in play ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release. Above Monday’s high, 152.89 (Jan 6 high) and 153.72 (Jan 27 low) are levels to watch.
• In similar vein, EURJPY is trading on the front foot following last week’s near 3% plunge. We have noted that the short-term trend is oversold, and today’s gains are allowing this condition to unwind.Initial resistances are located at 157.97 (Feb 3 low) and 158.86 (Feb 6 high), however firm resistance is not seen until the 20-day EMA and the significant pivot level of 160.00.