EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rose on Strong Trading Interest
Mar-13 12:27
EUAs/UKAs are rallying with high trading volume following the positive result of EUA auction and the above-consensus industrial production data on 10AM GMT, extending yesterday’s rally on the back of talks of linking the EU’s and UK’s trading schemes.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.5% at 70.68 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 7% at 44.28 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 0.9% at 42.65 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas APR 25 up 0.5% at 104.76 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.5% at 5329
- TTF front month is higher on the day over concerns around refilling gas storage in Europe. Further signs of progress towards a Ukraine peace agreement have added bearish pressure in recent days.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €68.2/ton CO2e, up 1.76% compared with the previous EU auction at €67.02/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EUA Dec25 total traded volume before noon is at 16,294 contracts, up 53% from the previous day during the same timeframe and 11% higher than the 10-day moving average amid UKAs rally influence.
- UKA Dec25 total traded volume before noon is at 1,818 contracts, hitting the highest level during the same timeframe since 31 Jan. The volume is 132% higher than the 10-day moving average amid rising interest from participants following EU-UK ETS linkage talk.
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FRANCE DATA: Unemployment Rate Lower Than Expected But Employment Softer
Feb-11 12:25
France ILO Unemployment Rate for Q4 2024 was two-tenths lower than expected at 7.3% (vs 7.5% consensus, 7.4% prior).
- Whilst this may sound like good news, both the employment rate and economic activity rate were disappointing. The economic activity rate fell 0.3pps to 74.4% in Q4 2024 from 74.7% in Q3 - the lowest reading since Q4-2023. The decline was driven by the 15-24 year old activity rate falling from 43.0% to 41.5%, whilst there was a two-tenth decline to 88.6% for the prime 25-49 cohort and an unchanged rate for the 50-64 age group.
- The employment rate also declined to 68.9% from 69.1% in Q3 2024 - the lowest print since Q1-2024. This contrasts with the EC's Expected Employment Indicator for France which averaged 95.3 in Q4 up from 94.7 in Q3 2024, though below the 2024 average of 97.1.
- In terms of age groups, the lower than expected unemployment rate was driven by 15-24 year old's rate falling to 19.0% in Q4 from 19.8% in Q3, while the rate for 25-49 and over 49 year old's remained broadly stable.
- The long-term unemployment rate remained at 1.7% of the active population in Q4.
MNI: FINAL REMINDER: MNI Webcast with ECB Frank Elderson On Feb 12
Feb-11 12:19
You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision'
- DATE: Wednesday 12 February
- TIME: 10 am to 11:15 am London time / 11 am to 12:15 pm Frankfurt time
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
JPY: Higher Core Yields Continuing to Weigh on Japanese Yen
Feb-11 12:12
- Pressure on core fixed income and the associated higher yields on Tuesday are supporting the latest recovery for Cross/JPY, as USDJPY rises to a fresh session high of 152.38. Price action narrows the gap to Monday’s peak, which comes in at 152.54.
- Plenty of room for USDJPY to correct further to the topside, given the powerful move lower last week and additional profit taking dynamics potentially in play ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release. Above Monday’s high, 152.89 (Jan 6 high) and 153.72 (Jan 27 low) are levels to watch.
- In similar vein, EURJPY is trading on the front foot following last week’s near 3% plunge. We have noted that the short-term trend is oversold, and today’s gains are allowing this condition to unwind.Initial resistances are located at 157.97 (Feb 3 low) and 158.86 (Feb 6 high), however firm resistance is not seen until the 20-day EMA and the significant pivot level of 160.00.
