POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE March Power Holds Onto Gains

• USDCAD has seen two pronounced moves lower overnight, first on local news wire headlines that PM Trudeau may resign this week ahead of a caucus meeting on Wednesday and then the aforementioned WaPo story on more targeted Trump tariffs.
• It sees the pair at 1.4310 (-0.9%) off a low of 1.4300, having last been below 1.43 on Dec 17, currently set for its largest one-day decline since May 2023.
• It has breached support at 1.4336 (Dec 20 low) and 1.4320 (20-day EMA), opening 1.4232 (Dec 17 low) in a test of what had looked like a bullish continuation signal.
• CAD had been outperforming but the broader USD weakness following the Trump headlines has seen it fall behind Antipodeans and EUR for top spot on the day.
• BoC-dated OIS has 19.5bp of cuts priced for the Jan 29 BoC decision. Today sees serv/comp PMIs for December headline the local docket but the main domestic release likely to alter BoC pricing isn’t until Friday’s jobs report.

Package in Bobl, selling out the Feb into March:

OEG5 118.5/119.25/119.75/122.00c condor vs 117.5/116.25ps.

VS OEH4 118/118.5cs vs 117.00p.

Bought the March cs for 5 and 6 in 13k.

Euribor Vol Buyer:

• ERJ5 98.00^, bought for 57.75 in 4k.