CREDIT PRE-MARKET: EUR Market Wrap

Feb-13 06:25
  • 2y/10y bunds closed +5bp at 2.13%/2.48% after rates reversed some, but not all, of the initial hawkish reaction seen in the wake of the firmer-than-expected US CPI report..USTs closed +7bp/+9bp at 4.36%/4.63%.
  • Main/XO ended -0.5bp/-3bp at 52.6bp/285bp while €IG was -0.9bp at 0.91% (Corps -0.9bp at 0.87%, Fins -0.9bp at 0.96%, €HY -2bp at 2.9%). $IG was -2.1bp at 0.79% (Corps -2.2bp at 0.78%, Fins -1.9bp at 0.79%, $HY -0.9bp at 2.62%).
  • SX5E/SPX futures closed +0.3%/-0.3% at 5417pts/6073pts. €IG movers included Computershare (+15%), Heineken Holding (+14%), Kering (+7%), Siemens Energy (+5%), Storebrand (-9%), Westinghouse Air Brake (-9%), Randstad (-7%), Nissan Motor (-6%).
  • SX5E/SPX futures are +1.1%/+0.2% this morning. Overnight team flagged that EU related assets have rallied on Ukraine peace hopes as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism for what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. UST yields are trading 1-2bps richer today, the curve has steepened slightly.
  • Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears, and US January PPI and jobless claims print as well as UK December IP, trade, construction and preliminary Q4 GDP, and euro area December IP and EC forecasts. The ECB’s Cipollone also speaks.

 

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Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)

Jan-14 06:23
DateUKPeriodEvent
15-Jan0700DecConsumer inflation report
15-Jan0700DecProducer Prices
15-Jan1630 BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook
16-Jan0700NovGDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction
17-Jan0700DecRetail Sales
21-Jan0700Nov/DecLabour Market Survey
22-Jan0001JanBrightmine pay deals for whole economy
22-Jan0700DecPublic Sector Finances
23-Jan1100JanCBI Industrial Trends
24-Jan0001JanGfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
24-Jan0930JanS&P Global Flash PMI
24-Jan1100JanCBI Distributive Trades
28-Jan0001JanBRC Monthly Shop Price Index
30-Jan0930DecBOE M4/ Lending to Individuals
03-Feb0930JanS&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI
05-Feb0930JanS&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)

Jan-14 06:18
DateTimeCountryEvent
14-Jan735EUECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe
14-Jan900ITIndustrial Production
15-Jan315EUECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference
15-Jan745FRHICP (f)
15-Jan800ESHICP (f)
15-Jan800EUECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day
15-Jan1000EUIndustrial Production
16-Jan700DEHICP (f)
16-Jan900ITHICP (f)
16-Jan1000EUTrade Balance
16-Jan1230EUAccount of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
17-Jan900EUEZ Current Account
17-Jan1000EUHICP (f)
17-Jan1100EUECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference
20-Jan700DEPPI
20-Jan1000EUConstruction Production
20-Jan EUECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting

GBPUSD: Southbound

Jan-14 06:08
  • RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
  • RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
  • RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
  • RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9 
  • PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
  • SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 
  • SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
  • SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support 
  • SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number      

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.