EU: Euronews-Ukraine Aid Back In Draft EUCO Conclusions

• MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0

Given the sharp spot swings from the re-opening of trade - a series of sizeable FX expiries set to roll-off both today as well as later in the week are now in close proximity, with markets particularly focusing on larger $1.0325 EUR/USD strikes today (E1.5bln set to roll off here) and Y155.00 strikes in USD/JPY ($650mln).

• The sharper moves for USD/CAD brings >$800mln at C$1.4895 on Wednesday but, more notably, it's the ~$3bln set to roll off between C$1.4740-1.4800 - a sizeable proportion of which is made up of calls, and could keep prices supported across the week and through the dual US/Canadian jobs reports set for Friday.
• Today's pipeline:
  • EUR/USD: $1.0200(E507mln), $1.0325(E1.5bln), $1.0350(E710mln), $1.0370-75(E662mln), $1.0400(E1.8bln), $1.0420-25(E1.2bln)
  • USD/JPY: Y155.00($646mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.4400($1.6bln)

• Ahead of the 10:00GMT / 11:00CET Italian inflation release, Istat has released the provisional weights for 2025 with upward revisions for services & energy and downward revisions for core goods.
• The main changes to the HICP ECOICOP divisions weights (see table below) are greater weight for housing and utilities ("Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels" revised +0.7pps), and less importance for recreation and culture (-1.0pps). See the table below.
• The inflation weights are usually revised alongside the final release on 21 February 2025.
• The 2025 CPI NIC weights for the main special aggregates:
  • Services 44.0918% (vs 43.3978% in 2024)
  • Inflation ex energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 69.1245% (vs 69.5454% in 2024 i.e. the HICP definition of core)
  • Core inflation using the NIC definition (i.e. ex energy and unprocessed food): 82.5648% (vs 82.8803% in 2024)
  • NEIG 25.0327% (vs 26.1476% in 2024), Energy 10.7690% (vs 10.3568% in 2024)
• Main products added to the basket to represent the changes in the household spending patterns or to improve the coverage of expenditure aggregates already represented in the basket, are: Speck, Women’s shorts, Ceiling lamp, Mattress topper, Bicycle inner tube, Windshield Wiper Blades, Dog waste bags, Pet bowls, and Ice cream cone.
• COVID-19 antibody serological test and COVID-19 molecular swab test have been removed from the basket.