Zooming out, the general theme of spread tightening seen over the last week or so has been driven by several factors:
- Notable demand at the early round of ’25 EGB syndications (which included long end OAT supply).
- Continued narrowing of ASW spreads in Germany (linked to German fiscal/supply risk, as well as increasing free float).
- Dovish ECB repricing countering some of the early January hawkish adjustment
- Fresh record highs across some of the major European equity indices.
- An associated move lower in EUR implied FI vol. metrics.
- Some of the major EGB/Bund spreads trade near key levels.
- OAT/Bunds once again struggles to trade meaningfully below 75bp, with French fiscal and political risks continuing to limit spread tightening below that level, at least for now.
- BTP/Bunds near multi-year lows, last ~107bp.