NZDJPY: Eyeing 20-day EMA Upside Test, HK Equity Gains Aiding Move
NZD/JPY is tracking around 0.85% higher, as the cross approaches the 87.00 level. This would put us within striking distance of the 20-day EMA, although as the chart below shows, this hasn't been an important inflection point recently. The 50-day, which sits higher closer to 88.00, has been breached on several occasions in Jan this year, but ultimately that proved to be a selling opportunity in this cross.
- Yen weakness remains the main driver of yen crosses (USD/JPY last close to 153.45/50), but NZD/USD has picked up a little ground, last near 0.5665/70, up a little over 0.20%.
- The better tone to HK/China equities, has aided AUD and NZD in recent dealings, although HK markets are clearly outperforming at this stage.
- For AUD/JPY we are close to 96.75, which is already above the 20-day EMA, the 50-day day is near 97.31.
Fig 1: NZD/JPY Versus Key EMAs
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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ASIA STOCKS: Hong Kong & China Equities Struggle, Following PBOC Comments
Chinese equities are under pressure despite the PBOC's latest efforts to support the yuan, with early trading showing most indexes lower. Investors remain unimpressed as today's PBOC comments and Governor Pan's remarks offer little new information. The timing of the announcement, coinciding with onshore market closures, contrasts with prior morning interventions that lifted stocks. Underwhelming economic data and rising geopolitical tensions are further dampening sentiment.
- The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 1.9%, led by Shenzhou International (-5.2%) and Sunny Optical (-4.8%), making it one of Asia's worst performers. The HSCEI is down more than 18% since October 7, on track for its sixth consecutive daily decline and nearing a technical bear market.
- The HSI is 1.95% lower with HS Tech down 1.70%, while property stocks are lower, although outperforming the wider market, with the Mainland Property Index down just 0.60%. In mainland China equities, the CSI 300 is down 0.45%, while small-cap benchmarks are mixed.
- Broader Asian sentiment also weakened, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 0.8%, while US equity futures are also trending lower with S&P 500 eminis 0.35% lower, while Nasdaq eminis are trading 0.40% lower.
- China Trade balance data is due out at some point during the session, with expectations of a $100.00b surplus, slightly above November's reading of $97.44b
MNI: CHINA 2024 EXPORTS +7.1% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
- CHINA 2024 EXPORTS +7.1% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
- CHINA 2024 IMPORTS +2.3% IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
CNB: USD/CNH Drifting Lower Amid PBoC Stability Vow, Still Above Recent Lows
USD/CNH is holding close to session lows, last near 7.3500. This is a modest CNH gain of around 0.15%. USD/CNY is a down in the first part of dealing, but is holding above 7.3300 at this stage. Recent lows in USD/CNH were at 7.3132, recorded last Monday. The 20-day EMA support level continues to track higher, last around 7.3250.
- We saw a raft of headlines earlier following an FX markets meeting in Beijing. The headlines were largely in line with on-going rhetoric around FX markets. Critically the PBoC noted that the yuan will stay at a reasonable balance level and that it will prevent FX overshooting.
- It was also announcement that the cross-border macro prudential for local firms would be raised to 1.75 from 1.50. This allows local companies to raise more funds offshore and is designed to alleviate pressure on the yuan (by boosting the supply of offshore currencies onshore). The last time we had adjustment higher was in July 2023.
- PBoC Governor Pan also made comments, which crossed the wires. He reiterated the comments around the yuan, while also noting liquidity will remain supported via RRR and interest rate cuts. This is in line with previous rhetoric from the Governor. Pan stated focus should be on supporting consumers, which comes after Vice Premier He Lifeng made similar remarks late on Friday.
- Note we get retail sales data for Dec on Friday, as well as Q4 GDP.
- Headlines on Dec trade figures are also starting to cross.
