STIR: Fed Rates Fade Hawkish Shifts In ECB and BoE Pricing
Feb-19 11:30
* Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight as they consolidate yesterday's climb. * Th...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Support Remains Intact
Jan-20 11:29
- In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0338, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in GBPUSD remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a 0.764 projection of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2398, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 154.97, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EUR: The Pound is paring losses
Jan-20 11:28
- The EUR is still pushing higher, and at a new intraday high versus the USD, CHF, SEK, and the Yen.
- The Pound and the AUD have pared some losses, aided by some USD selling interest.
- Cable fell some 61 pips post the EU Equity Cash Open, but has recovered some ~40 pips in the past hour and a half or so, now looking to push back above 1.2200.
EGB SYNDICATION: Lithuania 5/15-year LITHUN Mandate
Jan-20 11:16
Lithuania has announced a mandate for a new 5-year / new 15-year LITHUN EMTN dual-tranche syndication to take place in the "near future".
- The LITHUNs will mature in January 2030 and January 2040 respectively.
- Lithuania's gross borrowing requirement for 2025 is E8.8bln of which E6.0bln is expected to be raise from EMTNs. This increases the scope for a larger Lithuanian syndication that we have seen in recent years (and note this will be the first dual-tranche Lithuanian transaction to see two new issues since April 2020).
- We pencil in E750mln to E1.5bln to be sold in each tranche, with a total deal size at least matching the E2.0bln sold in the April 2020 syndication (and the possibility of E2.5-3.0bln).
- We expect the transaction to take place tomorrow.
