NATGAS: FIRST TAKE: Trump-Zelensky meeting fallout BULLISH for TTF, JKM
Feb-28 20:05
FIRST TAKE: Trump-Zelensky meeting fallout BULLISH for TTF, JKM as Russian gas return to Europe is l...
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FED: Chair Powell Asked on QT, Says Reserves Are Still Abundant
Jan-29 20:04
- Q: What information would you need on tariffs to change the path of monetary policy?
- A: The range of possibilities is very wide, we don't know how long, how much, what' countries, about retaliation, or how it will transmit to consumers. Trade is not as concentrated in China as it was. There is a lot more manufacturing moves to Mexico and other places.
- Asked about QT: Powell says the most recent data show reserves are still "abundant" with the Fed funds rate steady. Nothing to say about particular dates - as always we stand ready to adjust policy in light of economic and financial developments.
- Asked about the AI-related equity selloff this week: says it doesn't qualify as a "macro development".
US TSYS: Continue To Move Off Post-Decision Lows
Jan-29 20:04
- Treasury futures are paring post-FOMC losses, futures running near steady to mildly weaker across the board as Chairman Powell softens the hawkish tone over the initial statement as he addresses journalists.
- Currently, the Mar'25 10Y futures trade at 108-30.5 (-2.5), still well inside initial technical ranges. 10Y yield at 4.5506% from 4.5891% high. Curves moving flatter: 2s10s -1.458 at 31.872, 5s30s -1.441 at 42.923.
- Incidentally, BBG US$ index reversed initial gain currently 1301.40 (+.21) vs. 1303.92 post FOMC; Gold well off lows (2755.29 -8.22); stocks pare losses with SPX Eminis at 6071.0 vs. 6042.25 low.
COMMODITIES: Crude Remains Under Pressure, Spot Gold Pares Losses
Jan-29 20:03
- WTI is trading lower today and was largely unmoved by the Fed’s decision to hold rates unchanged. Stronger focus is on the US inventory builds.
- WTI Mar 25 is down by 1.1% at $72.9/bbl.
- The move lower in WTI futures this week has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, turning attention to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.24. A clear break of this average would open $68.05, the Dec 20 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has pared losses as Fed Chairman Powell says in his press conference that the removal of the reference to inflation progress wasn’t meant to send any signal.
- The yellow metal is currently down by 0.3% at $2,756/oz.
- A bull cycle in gold is still in play, with sights on $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high.
- On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2,678.1, the 50-day EMA.
- Silver has outperformed today, with the precious metal rebounding by 1.3% to $30.8/oz, leaving the gold-silver ratio 2.5% below the 12-month high reached earlier this week.
- For silver, a bear cycle remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term, with key resistance seen at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
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