EGBS: Gains Continue Following Transatlantic Service PMI Weakness

Gilts have generally tracked swings in wider core global FI markets today.

• The open saw the recent recovery rally extend a little further, although early session highs have not been retested, with the opening move now more than fully reversed.
• Futures last -21 at 92.02, after registering a fresh session low at 91.99 in recent trade.
• Technical parameters flagged earlier remain untouched.
• The overarching technical setup remains bearish, but the recent recovery poses a risk to that trend.
• Fibonacci resistance located at 92.75.
• Bears need to force a move through the Jan 16 low (90.68) to assert fresh pressure.
• Yields 1.0-2.5bp higher across the curve.
• 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2bp wider around 210bp after Tuesday saw the first close below that level since November.
• Higher-than-expected PSNB may have contributed to today’s widening.
• Looking ahead, tomorrow will bring GBP4.25bln of 4.375% Mar-28 supply.
• Friday will then bring the release of the flash PMI data. Markets could prove to be increasingly sensitive to that data given downside risks to UK economic growth.

President Donald Trump's suggestion that the US will "probably" stop buying oil from Venezuela is seen as a negotiating tactic rather than policy, Platts said.

• David Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies and chair of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center's Energy Advisory Group, believes Trump is increasing pressure on Venezuela ahead of negotiations.
• Goldwyn argued that Trump's "America First" policy aims to reduce migration pressure, avoid reintroducing certain countries to Venezuelan oil control, moderate US energy prices, and prevent a humanitarian crisis.
• Trump advisors told Axios earlier in the week that the administration wants regime change in Venezuela but that “doesn't necessarily mean military action.”
• Experts are divided on whether Trump will revoke US licenses for oil companies operating in Venezuela.
• Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested licenses might be reversed but it won’t necessarily lead to the return of "maximum pressure".
• However, replacing Venezuelan crude would be complex as local US grades are misaligned with refinery needs.

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