RENEWABLES: German Morning Renewable Forecast

• The push higher in Govies continues to be OAT and BTP led, OAT has been bought in close to 10k in a 5 minutes window, and 5k for the BTP.
• There's hasn't been any obvious trigger, and the moves looks to more order flow related, but Some selling interest is emerging now at the top of the range in OAT and BTP, Bund also starts to fade of its intraday high.

Lagarde plays down the need for forward guidance, in line with GC colleagues over the last few weeks (e,g Nagel and de Guindos): “We have a method, we will apply the method, and we will take all the data that comes in. And data is going to be fascinating, as I said, the price of energy is going to be something that might have a real impact”.

• Earlier, when speaking about why the ECB has not cut by 50bps yet, Lagarde pointed the earlier start to the cutting cycle (e.g. compared to the Fed). 

• Guidance: 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (mid) +8bp area
• Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E10-15bln)
• Maturity: 30 April 2035
• Coupon: Short first
• ISIN: ES0000012O67
• Settlement: 29 January 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BBVA, CACIB, DB (B&D/DM), JPM, MS, SANTANDER
• Timing: Books open, today's business

From market source