HEALTHCARE: Glaxo (GSK: A2/A): 4Q24

• RES 4: 166.51 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 163.32 High Jan 2
• PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 6 
• SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY has pulled back from the Dec 30 high, however, the move down appears corrective - for now. A bullish short-term condition remains intact and the next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.

• RES 4: 93.87 Low Dec 16  
• RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17  
• RES 2: 93.16 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 92.08 High Jan 2              
• PRICE: 92.23 @ Close Jan 3 
• SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19 and the bear trigger                         
• SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.

• Belgium: We look for the 10-year syndication to be held in the week ahead (with the potential for it to be held in the W/C 13 January). We look for the same E7.0bln size we have seen in the past two years with some upside risk.
• Ireland: There is one Irish syndication due in 2025 and given that there is already a May-35 IGB outstanding (that was originally issued as a 15-year bond), we see around a 50% probability that this year's new issue is not a 10-year with 15-year and 30-year both possibilities. We expect the transaction to take place in the week ahead and pencil in a E3bln size.
• Italy: We pencil in a new 15-year BTP in the week ahead for E10bln. The maturity in our view is quite uncertain and there is also a potential for a new 30-year BTPei.
• Portugal: We expect a syndication in the week ahead (possibly the following week) and there is a possibility for a 10-year but this may not be launched in January as the current 10-year benchmark, the 2.875% Oct-34 OT, is still smaller than other comparable duration OTs. There is also an existing Oct-35 OT that was launched as a 15-year issue in 2020. We therefore think it most likely that we see a new 2033 or 2040 OT launched.
• Slovenia: We don’t have a strong conviction regarding the maturity, but we expect a Slovenian syndication in the upcoming week.

For more on our wider syndication expectations and expectations for new bonds in 2025 see the MNI Eurozone Issuance Deep Dive: 2025 Outlook here.