We expect modest tightening in GLENLN spreads on this. We would not assign a high probability to a merger at this point. It would be a complex transaction, and we have no visibility on advanced talks are.
RIOLN trades 0 to 10 wider than BHP and ~20 inside GLENLN in USD. Should a merger proceed, we would expect modest widening in RIOLN leaving perhaps 10-15bp of upside for GLENLN spreads.
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Equity roll pace: The December is still the front Month for Europe, but well over half the volume is now Roll related.
Gilts rally in early trade, reacting to the inline to slightly softer-than-expected UK CPI readings.