WTI TECHS: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $75.18/79.48 - High Feb 3 / High Apr 12 ‘24
- PRICE: $71.60 @ 07:28 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: $70.43/22 - Low Feb 6 and the bear trigger / Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
WTI futures have pulled back from Tuesday high and price has again traded below the 50-day EMA - at $72.14. Attention is on $70.43, the Feb 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine a bullish theme and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would strengthen a bearish threat and open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $75.18. A move above this level is required to reinstate a bull theme.
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USD: Cable recovers from the low
- The Dollar was steady throughout the overnight session and going into the European session as Market Participants await the US CPI, the main Data release for this Week.
- The British Pound was down a small 0.10% and the Yen was up 0.36%.
- Post Cash Govie open, and since the UK Inflation coming below consensus, as previously mentioned on the Data release, Cable fell 40 pips post Data, but has now fully reversed that move to sit back just down 0.12%, at pre data level.
- The Yen is extending further gains following the underlying bid in Bonds led by the UK Data miss, and while it is up half a percent, USDJPY is still short of Monday's low of 156.92, the initial support area.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6351 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6236/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6198 @ 07:34 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 0.6131 Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5994 1.618proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pair has recently breached support at 0.6179, the Dec 31 low, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 0.6100 handle next. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6236, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6351.
SWEDEN: Underlying Inflation Trends Remain Benign
Swedish December CPIF ex-energy inflation was 2.0% Y/Y on a rounded basis (vs 2.1% flash, 2.4% prior). The unrounded flash print was 2.05%, so its not a huge surprise to see the final reading round down. The Riksbank projected a 2.23% Y/Y in the December MPR. Overall, underlying inflation continues to develop in a manner consistent with the 2% target. This should support a further Riksbank rate cut in January. Governor Thedeen's speech today at 1430GMT/1530CET is a key focus.
- On a seasonally adjusted basis using the X-13 methodology, CPIF ex-energy prices rose 0.14% M/M, the lowest sequential reading since August. This helped drive a deceleration in a broad range of momentum measures, with the exception of the 6M annualised rate.
- There were annual decelerations in restaurant and hotel (3.0% Y/Y vs 3.9% prior) and recreation and culture (0.6% Y/Y vs 1.9% prior) inflation.
- On the goods side, furniture and household equipment and clothing inflation also eased.
- Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation, which some Riksbank Executive Board members have been tracking more closely over the last few months, eased to 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior).
- Headline inflation confirmed flash estimates at 1.5% Y/Y (vs 1.8% Riksbank and prior).
- As expected, the sharp fall in electricity prices at the end of December weighed on the headline CPIF rate (-6.9% Y/Y, -2.7% M/M).
