US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
Feb-19 16:23
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 110-00 High Feb 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 108-28 @ 16:18 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 108-04/00 Low Feb 12 / Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures recovered off the intraday low of 108-21+ well, keeping the price clear of the Feb 12 low. Any further reversal higher would expose key resistance and bull trigger at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. For bears, recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low, signalling the end of the correction between Jan 13 - Feb 7. Moving average studies highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 108-00, Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, Jan 13 low and bear trigger.
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan21 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Jan-20 16:18
- EUR/USD: $1.0300(E2.0bln), $1.0325(E3.3bln), $1.0400(E2.2bln), $1.0415-20(E1.3bln), $1.0450(E921mln), $1.0490-00(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y153.00($1.5bln), Y156.00-05($2.2bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y159.40(E1.3bln), Y166.20($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6200(A$775mln), $0.6245-50(A$939mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4285($703mln)
UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview: January 2025 Release
Jan-20 15:56
- The importance of UK labour market data may have fallen a little for the MPC, but it is still incredibly important for the market, despite growth concerns having picked up recently and activity and PMI data increasingly watched.
- The scope for further revisions make this month’s print even more unpredictable.
- Rounded to 1dp, the majority (6/8) of analyst forecasts we have seen for private sector regular AWE look for a 5.8%Y/Y print in the 3months to November, up from 5.37%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of October. The other two forecasts we have seen look for 5.7%.
- In terms of the “headline” whole economy AWE numbers, ex-bonus forecasts are generally 5.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (from 5.19%Y/Y in the 3-months to October) while the total (including bonus) whole economy AWE forecasts are split between 5.6-5.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (with one analyst looking for 5.5%).
For the full preview including summaries of a dozen sellside views click here.
CANADA DATA: Mixed Inflation Expectations For Firms, Better For Consumers
Jan-20 15:53
- There is, as always, a lot to unpack within the BOS and CSCE surveys but on inflation expectations, businesses in Q4 broadly gave back some of the downward progress seen in Q3 whereas consumers further converged towards more typical readings.
- Within the details, the BOS 2Y confirmed last quarter’s notable step lower to 2.5% but the separate monthly Business Leaders’ Pulse (BLP) readings all accelerated 20bps in December vs September readings across 1-5Y periods.
- Ranging from 2.6-2.8%, these BLP readings remain within the 1-3% target range although 2.6% for the 2Y is the highest end-quarter reading since Dec’23 whilst the 2.7% for the 5Y is the highest end-quarter reading since the BLP started in mid-2022 (but with a few joint highs at 2.7% in other months).
- Consumer inflation expectations meanwhile saw a sharp step lower for the 1Y to 3.05% (-80bps) whilst the 2Y and 5Y broadly consolidated Q3’s moderation with 3% readings.
