US NATGAS: Henry Hub Extends Rally to Highest Since Jan. 28
Feb-13 12:57
Henry Hub has risen to the highest since Jan. 28 with demand expected above normal this week and with record LNG terminal feedgas, ahead of the updated EIA storage data.
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb. 7 will be released this afternoon at 10:30 ET (15:30BST). The expectation is for a draw of 96bcf according to a Bloomberg survey following a draw of 174bcf the previous week. The seasonal normal is a draw of around 144bcf.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas has risen to a new record high at 15.39bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg, amid rising Sabine Pass and Plaquemines supplies.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand has risen again to 119.0bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. The NOAA forecast shows below normal in most of the US in the 6-10 day period but with warmer weather spreading from the west in the 8-14 day period.
- US domestic natural gas production has drifted lower this week to 104.9bcf/d today, BNEF shows, compared to an average of 107.5bcf/d over the previous week.
- Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.33bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was 629k on Feb. 12.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 3.4% at 3.69$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 3.1% at 3.68$/mmbtu
- US Natgas FEB 26 up 1.3% at 4.61$/mmbtu
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Jan-14 12:43
Mixed SOFR/Treasury options flow reported overnight, leaning towards downside put structures in the lead up to this morning's PPI data. Underlying futures modestly firmer but scaling off of early London session highs. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to retreat, current vs. late Friday levels* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 steady at -4.9bp, May'25 -9.0bp (-8.4bp), Jun'25 -16.5bp (-16.3bp), Jul'25 steady at -18.7bp.
- SOFR Options:
- 3,200 SFRJ5 95.62/95.75/95.81/95.88 broken put condors
- 3,200 SFRU5 95.87 puts vs. 95.87/96.12 call spds
- 7,000 SFRJ5 95.50/95.56 put spds ref 95.835
- 2,000 SFRM5 95.37/95.62 put spds ref 95.835
- -3,500 SFRU5 95.00/95.75 2x1 put spds, 12.0 ref 95.885
- Treasury Options:
- 1,100 USJ5 110/112/114 put flys
- 2,250 FVG5 106.25/106.75/107.50 broken call flys
- 2,000 TYJ5 107/107.5 put spds ref 107-14
- 4,500 TYG5 107 puts
- +10,000 TYG5 108 calls, 16 vs. 107-15/0.32%
EGB SYNDICATION: 10-year GGB: Final terms
Jan-14 12:29
- Spread set earlier at MS+102bp (guidance was MS+107bps area)
- Size: E4bln (top of the E3-4bln range MNI expected)
- Books in excess of E40.5bln (inc JLM interest)
- Maturity: 15 June 2035
- Settlement: 21 January, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: GR0124041758
Via Bloomberg / market source
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Needle In Bunds Points South
Jan-14 12:27
- In the FI space, the trend in Bund futures remains bearish and last week’s extension reinforces this theme. The contract has cleared key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme. Sights are on the 130.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance is at 133.03, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind. First resistance is at 131.71, the Jan 9 high.
- The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. The latest move down also highlights an acceleration of the trend. Sights are on 88.87 next, a 2.764 projection of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing. Initial resistance is at 90.31, last Thursday’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 91.86. The EMA is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
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