US NATGAS: Henry Hub on Track for Highest Since Jan. 27
Feb-13 18:13
Henry Hub front month is trading higher and remains on track for its highest close since Jan. 27. However, it has lost eased back from its intraday high spike which followed EIA data showing a storage withdrawal.
US Natgas MAR 25 up 2.2% at 3.64$/mmbtu
US Natgas APR 25 up 1.7% at 3.63$/mmbtu
Earlier support came from record LNG feedgas flows and expectations of above-normal demand this week.
The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb. 7 showed a withdrawal of 100bcf, roughly in line with expectations. The seasonal five-year average was a net withdrawal of around 144bcf.
Total stocks are down to 2,297bcf and 248bcf below levels seen a year ago and 67bcf below the previous five-year average of 2,364bcf.
US LNG export terminal feedgas has risen to a new record high at 15.39bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
Lower 48 natural gas demand has risen again to 119.0bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. The NOAA forecast shows below normal in most of the US in the 6–10-day period but with warmer weather spreading from the west in the 8–14-day period.
US domestic natural gas production has drifted lower this week to 104.9bcf/d today, BNEF shows,
FOREX: Dollar Index Pulls Back 0.5%, EURGBP Prints Four-Month High
Jan-14 18:07
The ICE USD index sits half a percent lower on the session Tuesday, as the greenback extends a moderate retreat ahead of the key CPI data tomorrow. Softer-than-expected PPI data helped the greenback consolidate overnight weakness, with higher long-end US yields and lower equities unable to support the dollar.
It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish, with the greenback potentially vulnerable to a deeper correction.
Price action has seen EURUSD briefly climb back to the 1.0300 handle, rising 0.5% on the session. Higher German yields have been supportive of the single currency at the margin, further evidenced by EURGBP rising to a 4-month high of 0.8451.
As noted, a sustained breach of 0.8448 resistance would signal scope for a move towards 0.8494, the August 26 high. Separately, the August highs reside at 0.8625, which could garner attention should UK fiscal concerns/uncertainty deteriorate further. Both the 20-day and 50-day EMA’s represent initial support for the cross, currently intersecting around 0.8325. UK CPI is due early Wednesday.
Overall, broad pressure on core fixed income continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, with EURJPY extending its intra-day advance to 0.8% and now 260 pips above the Monday lows around the psychological 160.00 mark. USDJPY has also risen back to 158.00, as market participants continue to weigh rhetoric from Japanese officials ahead of the January BOJ decision.
US: Americans Give Biden Negative Assessment On Economy And Foreign Policy
Jan-14 18:03
A new survey from Gallup found that Americans “offer a largely negative assessment” of the progress made during the administration of President Joe Biden on 18 economic, national and international issues.
Semafor notes on the survey: “Majorities said they believe the US lost ground over the past four years in addressing the federal debt, immigration, the wealth gap, the economy, the US’ place in the world, and crime... Meanwhile, pluralities said they think the US has fallen behind in other areas like infrastructure, despite Biden presiding over the passage and implementation of a sweeping bipartisan infrastructure law.”
Yesterday, Biden defended his legacy in his final foreign policy speech, arguing he oversaw the rehabilitation of US multilateralism and enacted policies that will bolster the US’ global standing in the future.
Biden: “...thanks to our administration, the United States is winning the worldwide competition. Compared to four years ago, America is stronger, our alliances are stronger, our adversaries and competitors are weaker.”
On China, Biden said: “Today, I can report to the American people we’re in a better strategic position for long-term competition with China than we were when I took office… According to the latest predictions, on China’s current course they will never surpass us.”
Figure 1: Progress Report in 18 Areas During President Biden’s Four Years In Office
Source: Gallup
PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Update: $3.5B British Colombia 3Y SOFR Priced
Jan-14 17:58
Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
01/14 $3.5B *British Colombia 3Y SOFR+45
01/14 $3B *KFW +5Y +40
01/14 $2.5B #BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+47
01/14 $2.5B *CADES 5Y SOFR+68, upsized from $2B
01/14 $2B *CAF 5Y SOFR+82
01/14 $2B *IFC 3Y SOFR+29
01/14 $500M #Hyundai 3Y +80
01/14 $Benchmark Blackstone Private Cr Fund 7Y +190a