US NATGAS: Henry Hub Regains Ground Ahead of EIA Storage Data
Jan-30 13:05
Henry Hub Mar25 is regaining some ground today from a low of $3.06/mmbtu yesterday ahead of the updated EIA storage data and following the Feb. contract expiry yesterday.
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Jan. 24 will be released this afternoon at 10:30 ET (15:30BST). The expectation is for a draw of 315bcf according to a Bloomberg survey following a draw of 223bcf the previous week. The seasonal normal is a draw of around 189bcf.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is today below normal for only the second day this year at 95.7bcf/d, according to Bloomberg. The NOAA 6-14 day forecast is relatively unchanged on the day with above normal temperatures forecast in the south. Average Lower 48 temperatures suggest potential for cooler temperatures in the second week of Feb.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated at 105.4bcf/d today after reaching the highest since Jan. 3 yesterday at 106bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is at 14.50bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg with a recovery in supply to Corpus Christi and Freeport. Flows yesterday were revised down to 13.64bcf/d.
- Export flows to Mexico was again unchanged on the day at 6.3bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures was at 498k on Jan. 29.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 1.3% at 3.21$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 1.2% at 3.24$/mmbtu
- US Natgas FEB 26 up 0.5% at 4.41$/mmbtu
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-31 13:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.37% (-0.09), volume: $2.290T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $844B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $798B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
