POWER: Ireland's Great Island Gas Plant Shuts in Unplanned Outage

• JPY gains are shallow, however the currency remains the strongest performer on the day. EUR/JPY's resultant pullback has the cross testing the Y159.00 handle, meaning the failure to top the 50-dma last week has cost the price over 200 pips in two sessions - and signaling markets can remain volatile even in light newsflow sessions. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on 155.61, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger. 
• Meanwhile, AUD and NZD also trade firmer, reflecting the general strength seen across core European equity markets. The EuroStoxx 50 is outperforming as banks, once again, provide a solid contribution to the upside. The Munich Security Conference saw little material progress made toward any form of Ukraine dialogue, however reports suggesting the US could fund defence purchases from European arms companies has buoyed underlying sentiment.
• Crude oil markets saw a brief spell of support on headlines suggesting that OPEC+ could condiera  delay of the restart of some shuttered oil supply in April - moves that have brought further support to oil-tied FX. Nonetheless, CAD remains just softer off the Friday close, with the near-term focus shifting to Canadian CPI for January, due tomorrow.  
• Datapoints have been few and far between Monday, and that remains the case into the Monday close, with just Canadian housing starts on the docket. US markets remain closed today for Presidents' Day for the duration of Monday trade, likely to limit volumes, price action and the Presidential schedule well into the close.

Equity Option Expiry Friday 21st Feb, in Notional terms:

US:

• SPX: $1.23T.
• NDX: $50.06bn.
• Amazon: $12.61bn.
• Apple: $15.53bn.

EU:

• SX5E: €102.94bn.
• SX7E: €5.23bn.
• DAX: €19.36bn.
• CAC: €2.16bn.
• FTSE: £10.95bn

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis traded higher last week and the contract maintains a firmer tone. The latest recovery undermines a recent bearish threat and attention turns to resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. Initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would be a bearish development. First support lies at 6075.54, the 20-day EMA.
• The trend needle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures continues to point north. The move higher last week confirms once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A major resistance at 5525.00, the March 2000 all-time high (cont), has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a key bullish technical breach. Support to watch is 5304.02, the 20-day EMA.