OIL: Ishiba Says Japan Willing to Elevate Investment in US to $1T: Bloomberg

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 110-04   50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 109-04+/06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-06 @ 19:30 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 107-28+ Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 107-21+ Low May 29 ‘24 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Price has traded through the 108-00 handle exposing 107-19+ next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-04+, the 20-day EMA.

We've just published our preview of Friday's employment report (PDF HERE):

• Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates.
• The initial response rate to the establishment payroll survey increased notably back last month but we don’t rule out further large two-month downward revisions.
• The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
• This release will also see annual seasonal adjustment factor revisions for the household survey. They’re typically modest but we nevertheless watch them for any changes in recent trends.
• These revisions only affect the household survey, i.e. not payrolls figures from the establishment survey, although the latter will have more significant annual revisions in next month’s release.
• The next 25bp cut from the FOMC is only just fully priced for the June meeting whilst the USD index is at recent highs with the real exchange rate particularly elevated on a historical basis. We feel market sensitivity would be greatest in event of a report with broad dovish implications. 

A few key quotes from the December minutes (link). Most of these were taken verbatim from Powell's press conference, and aren't really any more hawkish than the rate path portrayed by the December Dot Plot, so shouldn't be that surprising (and consequently haven't moved markets that much):

• The main upshot is: "participants indicated that the Committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing. They also indicated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would be appropriate to continue to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time."
• "Some participants" noted that "the policy rate was now significantly closer to its neutral value than when the Committee commenced policy easing in September."
• And "many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters", including recent inflation readings, sustained domestic demand, lessened downside risks to the labor market/econ activity, and increased upside risks to the inflation outlook. Again, these were flagged by Powell at the press conference.
• "A substantial majority" saw that with the policy stance "still meaningfully restrictive", "the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity and inflation, including the economy's responses to the Committee's earlier policy actions."